We last visited the Minnesota Lynx on July 25 after the WNBA all-star game, with the Lynx standing at 10-13 and in 7th place among all WNBA teams. They started 0-6, then bounced back at 10-7 the rest of the first half. We foresaw some tough sledding for the Lynx due to a tough second half schedule.
So hats are off to the Lynx and coach Cheryl Reeve who managed a 9-8 second half for an overall record of 19-21 and a 6t seed into the WNBA playoffs. I mean, who knew that the Lynx would win 4 of their toughest and most crucial games of the second half, beating the #2 seed New York Liberty and the #3 Connecticut Sun in back-to-back games on July 28 and 30, and doing it with superstar Naphessa Collier out due to illiness. Guard Kayla McBride stepped up with 45 points in the 2 games while rookie center Dorka Juhasz scored 24 with 18 rebounds.
Then they swept the #4 Dallas Wings in a back-to-back 91-86 and 90-81 as Collier scored 54 and McBride 41.
They finished on something of a downer, however, losing their last 2 games to the #8 Chicago Sky and the #10 (non-playoff) Indiana Fever as their season-long 3-point shooting woes and defensive inadequacies came back to bite once again. They made 12-of-39 3s and gave up almost 90 points per game. Indiana outscored the Lynx 18-2 down the stretch to wipe out a 70-69 Lynx lead. (This against the League’s worst defensive team, Indiana, but of course the Lynx were 2nd-worst in average points given up.) The significance of these losses was that they dropped the Lynx from the #5 to the #6 seed, and a matchup against the #3 Sun instead of the #4 Wings.
Maybe that’s not a big deal. The Lynx would be underdogs either way. But they split 4 games with the Wings while getting outscored an average of 92-84, while they went 1-3 againt the Sun with an average margin of 85-77.
I suppose I could point out that the Lynx got their 4 big 2nd half wins while still shooting the 3 very poorly. They are the league’s worst 3-point shooting team at 32%. McBride lost her starting spot for a few games due to her inability to hit the 3. In the 4 big wins they made 31-of-87 3s or 36%. What a difference 4 lousy percentage points can make.
So, against the Sun the Lynx will face a team that made 36% of their 3s to our 32%, but just as important is the sun’s rebound total of 36 per game to the Lynx mere 31. Connecticut is an inside team, led by 3 forwards DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones and Alyssa Thomas, who score 48 ppg among them with 24 rebounds and shoot 42% overall and 41% from 3. The Lynx might match up inside or they might not. Collier is a beast, but Diamond Miller and Juhasz are rookies. Miller’s upside is most considerable, as is her inconsistency. Juhasz is a 10-rebound machine but inconsistent on offense.
As to the guards, the Lynx’ McBride is perhaps the most capable on either team of putting up a big game but it will consist mostly of 2-pointers, not 3s. If the game comes down to 3-pointers, the Lynx are at a serious disadvantage there, too.
With 2 of the possible 3 playoff games in Connecticut, it is going to take a Herculean effort from Collier and the Lynx to advance in these playoffs. You’d think the 2nd-worst defensive team in the league would need a bunch of 3-pointers to stay close to good teams, but in fact the Lynx scored 87, 88, 90 and 91 points in their 4 big big wins while shooting 36% from long range. So, for the Lynx to advance, you’d have to think that Collier and Miller and McBride are going to have to get an absolute barrage of 2-pointers to fall, to the tune of, oh, let’s say, an improbable 70 points among them? That sounds about right.