Timberwolves Season Beginning to Come Into Focus
Things have not started out quite like you’d like for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but I suppose it’s a little too early to panic. They’re 4-3. A year ago at this time they were 4-3 and, aside from the fact that they couldn’t beat the Oklahoma City Thunder—and, nobody could do that—things worked out OK. If last year is the role model, well, then the Wolves will put the pieces together in March and April. So, patience, my friends. Patience. There’s a long way to go.
Still, what fun is that? I’d rather worry, and there’s plenty to worry about. And, that’s not even including Ant Edwards’ hamstring injury. Initially, he was expected to be out for 2 weeks. Now, some ten days later, he’s been cleared for contact but not for games. He’ll be fine. In fact, he’s bee upgraded to “questionable” for tonight (Wendesday, versus the New York Knicks), though one imagines that, acting with an abundance of caution, the Wolves are probably not going to put him out on the court just yet.
But, what’s worrisome is not Edwards’ health. As I pointed out in my season preview a month or more ago, what’s worrisome is 1) the Wolves’ depth, or lack thereof. And, then, 2) there’s the appearance thus far that the Wolves are going to have trouble competing not just with OKC, but also with the Lakers and the Nuggets. They lost to the Lakers 128-110 in game #2. The Wolves had everybody available, the Lakers were without LeBron. Then they lost to the Lakers 116-115. The Wolves were without Ant, the Lakers were without both LeBron and Luka Doncic. Then there’s Denver, who beat the Wolves 127-114. Granted, the Nuggets had everybody while we were missing Ant.
There’s probably a 50-50 chance that we’re going to be playing the Lakers or the Nuggets in the 1st round of the playoffs. So a season in which competing with the Lakers and the Nuggets is difficult is not a good season for a playoff run. So that’s worry #2.
Worry #1 is that darned depth. The losses of Kyle Anderson and Nickiell Alexander-Walker to free agency the past 2 years has exposed the Wolves as the team that sent 10 players and picks to Utah for Rudy Gobert. We added a little bit of depth in the KAT trade, getting two-for-one. Still, with Ant out, we are still desperately trying to prove that Jaylen Clark, Rob Dillingham, Bones Hyland and Terrence Shannon are NBA players, an acceptable bench. (When Ant was playing, Dillingham was not. Meanwhile, nobody is hurt up front, but Clark and Naz Reid are the only front-court depth that the Wolves have.)
After 7 games:
• Mike Conley has returned to the starting lineup with Ant out. Who else is there? He has stepped it up his last 2 games, with 9.5 ppg, 3 boards and 6.5 assists while shooting 55%. He is +28 for those 2 games (against Charlotte and Brooklyn). He was -16 previous to that, and now is +12 for the year so far. Grade C.
• Donte DiVincenzo has bounced back from a horrific start. Now, after 7 games, he is averaging 30 minutes, 16 ppg, 5 boards, 6 assists and 54% shooting. Not all-NBA but not bad. He is +13 for the year but, like Conley, he was +24 against the weakest opponents (Charlotte and Brooklyn) and -11 against everybody else. Grade B.
• Rudy Gobert so far has been Rudy Gobert with 10 ppg, 9 rebounds and 2 blocked shots, while shooting 72%. He is a towering +58 against the last 2 opponents, -11 against everybody else. Grade B+.
• Jaden McDaniels also started a little slowly but in his last 4 games he is now averaging 22 ppg with 5 rebounds and 3 assists while shooting 66%. You may have noticed that the Wolves are giving up 117 ppg, ten more than 2 years ago when they suddenly emerged as one of the NBA’s best defensive teams. Well, don’t blame the “Seatbelt.” The point is that he was once part of the NBA’s best perimeter chase defense, but with the departure of Anderson and NAW, McDaniels is the only decent chase defender the Wolves have left. Still, he himself is as good as ever on defense, and is having his most productive streak yet on offense. Grade A.
• Julius Randle seems to love playing without Ant. He’s the #1 option and he is playing very very well on offense, averaging 35 minutes, 26 ppg, 8 rebounds and 6 assists while shooting 57%. On the other hand, he’s just +5. Against the weak sisters Charlotte and Brooklyn he was +21, compared to Rudy at +58, McDaniels at +28, Conley +38 and DiVincenzo at +34. Against everybody else he was -16. Grade B-.
The current starting 5 was a total of +169 against Booklyn and Charlotte, -74 against everybody else. And then there’s the bench. Or, is there?
• Well, sure, Naz Reid continues to play like an all-star off the bench. After a slow start, he is now averaging 22 minutes, 10 points and 5 boards while shooting 32% through 7 games. Grade B. Forward Jaylen Clark is averaging 19 minutes, 4 points and 42% shooting. Grade C. The guards are Shannon, Hyland and Dillingham. Terrence Shannon is averaging 16 minutes, 4 points and 20% shooting. Grade D. Bones Hyland is at 13 minutes, 7 points 2 assists and 58%. Grade B. Rob Dillingham is at 9 minutes, 7 points, 4 assists and 46%. Grade C.
The current starting 5 is shooting 55% from the field while the bench is at 40%.
The Schedule
Based on the original prognosis of 2 weeks recovery time for Ant, the Wolves have 3 more games without their superstar—at the New York Knicks tomorrow (Wednesday), vs. Utah at home on Friday, and at Sacramento on Sunday, though it now appears that he will be back sooner than that. The schedule remains somewhat favorable through the rest of November with 6 games at home and 4 away, and with just 3 games against solid playoff contenders Denver, OKC and San Antone. Get yer Victor Wembanyama fix on Sunday November 30. Right now I’m thinking the Wolves should wake up to a 10-7 record on December 1, and even then they’ll have a back-to-back against the lowly New Orleans Pelicans. So 12-7 is within reach. A year ago they were 9-10 on December 1. What, me worry? Don’t worry, be happy!
And the fact is that Ant’s injury might be a good thing longer term, if the Wolves’ bench gets any better by virtue of being force-fed here in November. Jaylen Clark shows the most promise. Shannon is up and down (or, more accurately, up-down-down.) Hyland seems to be an acceptable NBA backup guard. If Rob Dillingham actually turns out to be a player, then, all is forgiven.
But, either way, a playoff series against Denver or the Lakers would seem to be looming, and I’m not loving either of those matchups.