The Minnesota Gopher men completed the first “half” of their non-conference schedule at 5-2 last night with their most impressive win so far–97-64 over the 3-4 New Orleans Privateers. Ready or not, they now move into the early portion of the Big 10 schedule at Ohio State on Sunday Dec. 3 and then against Nebraska at Williams Arena on Wed. Dec. 6.
The 5 wins have all come against mid-majors–not a one of whom has a winning record, they’re 17-21 among the 5 of them–and by an average margin of 87-64. The losses have come at home to a 6-2 Missouri team that has lost to Memphis and Jackson State, and at the 5-2 San Francisco Dons who have lost to Boise State and Grand Canyon. The Gophers had a 20 point lead on Missouri at 11:25, but got outplayed 31-9 down the stretch to lose 70-68. Against USF, they were simply outclassed from tip-off to buzzer in losing 76-58.
So, as the Gophers move toward the heart of the 2023-2024 season, the Gophers have some question marks.
• Last year, the Gophers got absolutely torched by quick guards. Now, they’re a lot quicker in the backcourt with transfers Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mitchell. But, they’ve had difficulty defending guys like 6-2 Caleb Williams of D3 Macalester (41 pts); 6-2 Rashad Williams of Arkansas-Pine Bluff (26 pts on 6-of-11 3s); 6-2 Marcus Williams of USF (18 pts on 9-of-11 2s); 5-10 Nick Honor of Missouri (4-of-6 3s); 6-2 Khaleb Wilson-Rouse of New Orleans (5-of-7 2s); and so on, and the defensive difficulties have been both against the dribble drive and against the 3.
• The Gophers team stat sheet is mostly favorable as you’d expect when a team is outscoring its opponents by an average of 80-67 (all games), except for one line that shows the Gophers with 100 turnovers (14 per game) to their opponents 75 (11). Oh, and the steals are 70 for the opponents and just 38 for the Gophers. The Gophers are being outscored on points off turnovers by an average of 13-12 (against mostly mid-major opponents) and were outscored an average of 20-7 in their 2 losses. The chief miscreants are of course the guys who handle the ball–Hawkins with 22 (one every 8 minutes), Mitchell 17 (one every 11 minutes), Dawson Garcia 11 (one every 20 minutes), and Braeden Carrington 10 (one every 18 minutes). The ball-handling has simply been careless and sloppy at times, while the lack of steals again goes to a possible lack of quickness in the backcourt.
• The Gophers have also had some 2nd half let-downs when in the lead, principally against Missouri of course. After that, people were on the lookout for a recurrence. In the next game against South Carolina Upstate, a 10-point 2nd half lead dwindled down to 5 before the Gophers pulled away to win by 14. Against Arkansas-PB, an 18-point lead dwindled down to 8 before the Gophers pulled away to win by 19. The Gophers trailed USF the whole way, and steadily built their 2nd half lead against N’Auleans from about 20 to about 30, so that looked like progress.
The bottom line is that the Gophers are likely to have difficulty defending quick Big 10 guards just as they did a year ago. They should be improved, but will it be enough? And, those quick Big 10 guards are going to be aware of the Gophers’ propensity to turn the ball over, and they’re going to be badgering Gopher ballhandlers accordingly. And, all of this will become more and more of a problem when quick Big 10 teams kick it into a higher gear in the 2nd half of close games.
But, on the plus side, the fact is that the Gophers are improved and they’re deeper. 3 of their top 8 scorers are newcomers–the transfers Hawkins, Mitchell and freshman guard Cam Christie–while 3 others are true sophomores Braden Carrington, Josh Ola-Joseph and Pharrel Payne.
The backcourt is indeed deeper and quicker than it was a year ago, though that does not mean that the defensive and ball-handling issues are solved. And the collective shooting percentage among Hawkins, Mitchell and Carrington is just 37%. Freshman Cam Christie will get plenty of minutes off the bench with his 46% on FG and team #2 11 ppg. But while he remains a bit tentative on offense, Carrington is becoming a solid defender and is #2 with 6 rebounds per game. Hawkins and Mitchell give the Gophers better quickness plus 8 boards and 8 assists between them, but neither (and especially Hawkins) is a great shooter.
The frontcourt is a little stronger but not as deep. Dawson Garcia, the 6-11 junior from Prior Lake, is of course the team’s star and its leader. He is scoring 18 ppg on 49% shooting and leads with 8 rebounds and also chips in 3 assists. He’s better at the FT line than he is on the low block, and so the continuing improvement of the 6-9 Payne, who is a true post, is a big plus. He’s coming off the bench but is #3 with 10 ppg on 63% shooting and adds 2 blocked shots per game. Ola-Joseph, who has been starting, is shooting 66% and Parker Fox 82% off the bench. Isaiah Ihnen continues to start but has lost a lot of minutes over the past few games due to shooting woes. Fox has been a particular revelation. Like Ihnen, he missed 2 full seasons with injuries, but what we’ve seen so far this year is that he can absolutely jump out of the gym. He’s averaging just 10 minutes with 3 ppg and 3 rebounds, but the talent seems to be there to contribute more. It’s up to coach Ben Johnson and Fox himself to harness that talent.
Is it a concern or an opportunity that the 5 starters have consistently been Garcia, Ola-Joseph, Hawkins, Ihnen and Carrington, while the top 5 in minutes are Garcia, Mitchell, Carrington, Hawkins and Christies; and the top t5 in scoring are Garcia, Christie, Payne, Mitchell and Ola-Joseph. 3 of the top 5 scorers are coming off the bench.
So there are question marks all over the place, as befits a team that went 9-22 last year and 2-17 in the Big 10. The most critical ones–perimeter defense and turnovers–pertain to the backcourt. As a result, 5 or 6 wins and an escape from 14th place in the Big 10 would have to be an acceptable outcome, that is, acceptable evidence of progress. Then of course the Gophers will need to keep their guys out of the transfer portal and get up somewhere near .500 in 2025. That would seem to be the best that any Gopher fan could possibly hope for, but despite the question marks there seems to be at least some reasons to go ahead and hope for that.
Of course, Ohio State is likely to puncture such optimism on Sunday, but a decent showing in Columbus followed by a win over Nebraska at the Barn next Wednesday would be enough to keep hope alive.
