Big Ten men’s preview

As shocking as it sounds, the Big Ten has not won an NCAA championship since Michigan State in 2000. Or if you want to count Maryland’s title, won before it was a member of the Big Ten, well, even then the Big Ten has not won since 2002. Since then they’ve lost in the finals 8 times (if you count UCLA in 2006; 9 if you count Indiana in 2002). So, is this the year? Does the Big Ten finally get a breakout and a national title in 2026? Well, the answer probably is no.

I found 6 rankings online and it’s true that Purdue is rated #1 in 2 of them. They are a composite #2 behind the Houston Cougars. At least Purdue won one title back in 1932. The long-suffering Cougars have lost 3 times in the finals and once in a celebrated semi-final against Lew Alcindor and UCLA’s very best in 1968.

After Purdue at #2, the Big Ten has Michigan at #4, UCLA at #17, Illinois at #18, Michigan State at #21, Wisconsin at #23, Oregon at #26 and Ohio State at #30. Just for the record, that’s 8 of the top 30. The SEC has 7 of the top 30. But the SEC has 6 of the top 20, the Big Ten just four. But the favorite for the NCAA is probably “the field,” with 6 of the top 10 and half of the top 30. That includes teams like Houston, Duke, UConn, St. John’s and Louisville.

In any event, I am going to guess that the Big Ten will get 11 NCAA tournament bids, which means that Maryland is in and Iowa is out, unless Iowa, Nebraska or Washington wins 2 Big Ten tournament games against higher seeded opponents. Then they go in and the Big Ten gets up to 12 entries.

1. Purdue Boilermakers (24-12, #7 last year). The Boilermakers are of course rated as high as #1 nationally despite a downer year last year. (They come out #7 in our composite rating of the Big Ten last year, including #4 in the regular season, a loss in the tournament round of 8, and 2 wins in the NCAA tournament.) They return guards Braden Smith (6-0, senior, 16 ppg-9 reb-4 ast-2 stl), a 1st team all-American; and Fletcher Loyer (6-5, senior, 14 ppg); and power forward Trey Kaufmann-Renn (6-9, senior, 20 ppg-6 reb, 59% shooting). At center they can choose between 6-11 transfer Oscar Cluff, who scored 19 ppg at South Dakota State last year; or 7-foot-4 sophomore Daniel Jacobsen, who scored 6 ppg last year on 67% shooting. (Or, of course, they can go 7-4, 6-11 and 6-9 across the front line!) Freshmen guards Jack Benter and Antione West scored 46 ppg between them in high school. They’ll be great someday. Purdue also has the league’s second-best coach in Matt Painter.

Purdue is not a sure thing, not least because with the same 3 players in the lead, they had a disappointing finish last year. Still I have them 17-3 in the Big Ten, a full 4 games better than a year ago.

2. Michigan Wolverines (27-10, #3 tie). Michigan tied for 2nd in the regular season last year, then won the Big Ten tournament. Like Purdue, they won 2 NCAA tournament games before bowing out. The Wolverines return forward Will Tschetter (from Plainview, MN), wing Roddy Gayle and guard Nimari Burnett, who scored 25 ppg among them last year. Nowhere near as imposing as Purdue’s 3 big returnees.  But the real story is transfers Eliot Cadeau, who started 68 games in 2 years at point guard for North Carolina, and who averaged 8 ppg and 5 assists; 6-9 power forward Yaxel Lendeborg, who averaged 16 pp and 11 rebounds in 2 seasons at UAB, and who reportedly cashed in with a big NIL deal; 6-9 forward Morez Johnson, who came over from Illinois; and 7-3 post Aday Mara, from UCLA. Their portal class is rated #1 in the conference. Michigan also has a blue-chip freshman in 6-4 Trey McKinney, who scored 24 ppg as a high school senior, and so their freshman class is rated #3 in the conference.

I don’t know if it means anything, but Purdue’s top ten players scored 133 ppg among them last year, while Michigan’s scored 85. Still, I have Michigan at 16-4 in the Big Ten, just one game behind Purdue. Their early national ranking is a tie for #4 with UConn.

3. UCLA Bruins (23-11, #6). UCLA was a major disappointment in its first year in the Big Ten at 13-7, with no wins in the Big Ten tournament and just one in the NCAA tournament. UCLA returns 6-9 post Tyler Bilodeau, 6-8 wing Eric Dailey and 6-3 shooting guard Skyy Clark, who scored 32 ppg among them last year. They’re somewhere between Purdue’s big three returnees (not as good) and Michigan’s (better). Key man for this year will be senior point guard Donovan Dent, a transfer from New Mexico whom Bruin boosters reportedly lavished with NIL money.

If Dent isn’t great, the Bruins could be in trouble. But I have UCLA also at 16-4. Their early national ranking is #17.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (17-15, #11). I thought the Bucks would be better last year, and I think they’ll be better this year than their 9-11 of last year and a 1st round loss in the Big Ten tournament. I say that because of point guard Bruce Thornton, who scored 18 ppg last year. He and forward Devin Royal and guard John Mobley are as good as any returning threesome this side of Purdue. And they’ve added a 7-footer from Santa Clara and a 6-10 post from Baylor via the portal.

The Bucks have got a slightly generous Big Ten schedule, so I have them at 15-5. Their early composite ranking is #30. I think they’ll be better than that.

5. Southern California Trojans (17-18, #14 tie). The Trojans also were a big fail in their first year in the Big Ten, going 7-13 in the conference and winning just one game in the Big Ten tournament. And, now they’ve lost guards Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates to Washington but, hey, they finished 12th last year. So now they’re going to mix it up with freshman guards Alijah Arenas and Jerry Easter and transfers Rodney Rice (14 ppg at Maryland) and Jordan Marsh (19 ppg at UNC-Asheville). Up front they’ve got 6-7 Terrence Williams, who scored 12 ppg at Michigan 2 years ago and missed most of last year at USC with an injury; and Ezra Ausar and Chad Mazara, transfers from Utah and Auburn, respectively. Their portal class is rated #2 in the conference, and their freshman class is rated #1.

The talent is there, especially on the front line. But they’ll be depending on freshman guards to an uncomfortable degree. And, with only one returnee from last year, can coach Eric Musselman get ’em on the same page? I see a 14-6 conference season in store for the Trojans. They are not rated nationally at this time. I think they ought to be or could be.

6. Illinois Fighting Ilini (22-13, #8). The pundits disagree on Illinois more than on any other Big Ten team. They’re #15 in the national rankings and they’re huge, with the Ivisic brothers, 7-1 and 7-2 and with 21 points and 12 boards a year ago. And there are 6-10 and 6-9 freshmen and 6-9 returnee Ben Humrichous. Still, it will all be riding on junior point guard Kylan Boswell.

I have the Illini at 14-6. Their national ranking is #18, which might be about right.

7. Michigan State Spartans (30-7, #1). I thought Michigan State was a surprise last year–17-3 in the regular season, made the semis in the conference tourney, and won 3 NCAA tournament games. I’ll be even more surprised if they do that this year. Their talent just doesn’t look that impressive. In fact, they’re #6 here mostly just because of coach Tom Izzo, and he ain’t gonna be shootin’ the ball. Almost everything is riding on the improvement of point guard Jeremy Fears, now a sophomore, who scored 7 points with 5 assists and 40 percent shooting a year ago.

I have the Spartans at 12-8, and that’s very much based on Michigan State’s alleged intangibles. Their national ranking right now is #21. That might be a little high.

8. Indiana Hoosiers (19-13, #10). Number 10 doesn’t cut it at Indiana and so a new regime is now in place. That means head coach Darian DeVries, an Iowan with success at Drake and West Virginia, plus his kid, Tucker DeVries, a 6-7 forward who scored 18 ppg last year. They’ve also got transfers from Florida and DePaul, plus a bunch of mid-major transfers.

The Hoosiers will be improved from 10-10 to 12-8. Not earth-shattering, but better.

9. Maryland Terrains (27-9, #2). It’s hard to believe that Maryland finished 2nd in the Big Ten regular season, got to the tournament semis, and won 2 NCAA tournament games, including one over Niko Medved and Colorado State. Maybe coach Kevin Willard’s not the dork he appears to be. But, then, after all of that, 10 guys–count ’em, ten guys–transferred out. So maybe Willard is the dork that he appears to be. Ask me in March. Still, despite losing 10 guys to the portal, Willard’s portal class ranks #18 nationally. The big catch is point guard David Coit, who scored 13 ppg last year at Kansas; along with Myles Rice, who scored 13 ppg at Indiana. Add to that former Minnesotan Pharrel Payne, now at his 3rd school. They say that Maryland has a ton of NIL money. Payne was already making a reported $250,000 at Texas A&M. The talent is there, along with the chaos.

Maryland won with chaos a year ago, but this year I don’t know. I have them 10-10. They are not ranked nationally.

10. Oregon Ducks (25-10, #5). More than anybody, Oregon will rely on a 2-man attack led by 7-0 center Nate Bittle and 6-0 point guard Jackson Shelstad. Somebody is going to have to emerge as the 3rd option for these guys to finish any higher.

I have the Ducks at 10-10. Their national ranking right now is #26 which might be a little high.

11. Wisconsin Badgers (27-10, #3 tie). Some of you are gonna say this is just sour grapes. I’ve seen them rated at #20 nationally, which is 5th-best among the Big Ten. Tenth? Well, yes, they were terrific last year, but that was mostly due to John Tonje. He was a load, and now he’s gone. Now, most everything will be riding on the shoulders of point guard John Blackwell, who scored 16 ppg last year. And, sure, they’ve got one of the top 2 or 3 coaches. But, after Blackwell, the talent just isn’t that impressive.

I have the Badgers at 10-10. Their national ranking is #23, which is too high.

12. Iowa Hawkeyes (17-18, #14 tie). It’s hard to believe that Fran McCaffrey is gone. What might have happened but for all of those injuries? And now Owen Freeman and Peyton Sandfort are gone, too. Iowa has responded by hiring coach Ben McCollum, who won 4 D2 national titles at Northwest Missouri State, then won 31 games in his first year at Drake. Now he brings guard Bennett Stirtz with him from Drake. Stirtz is regarded as the best transfer into the Big Ten of the year. We shall see. The rest of the talent is somewhat unknown.

The Hawks have a particularly tough schedule so I have them at just 8-12.

13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (21-14, #9). Coach Fred Hoiberg still has a lot to prove at Nebraska. With newcomers (transfers) Peyton Sandfort, 6-7 forward from Iowa; and Kendall Blue, a guard from St. Thomas, the Huskers again will have higher expectations than results. Senior post Rick Mast and senior guard Connor Essegian lead the returnees.

I have the Huskers also at 6-14.

14. Washington Huskies (13-18, #18). A big disappointment last year, the Huskies now will be led by transfer guards Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates, both of whom come over from USC. They’ll make Washington a little bit better, but their move also makes USC a little bit better, if you receive my meaning. Wing Zoom Diallo is the top returnee.

I have the Huskies at 6-14.

15. Minnesota Gophers (15-17, 16 tie). The Gophers eke out the final spot in the conference tournament, and therefore get another chance to upset the Wisconsin Badgers, the #10 seed. I have the Gophers at 6-14 and 15-18 overall. I have a more complete Gopher preview in a separate post.

16. Penn State Nittany Lions (16-16, #13). Rebuilding around freshmen forward Mason Blackwood, guard Kayden Mingo and post Ivan Juric. They’ll take some lumps in their freshmen season. Guard Freddie Dilione is the only real returnee (9 ppg, 42 percent).

I have Penn State at 4-16.

17. Northwestern Wildcats (17-16, #12). Last year the Wildcats had all-conference forwards Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli. Now only Martinell remains. Otherwise their fate is in the hands of freshman post Tyler Kropp and transfers Max Green (Holy Cross) and Jayden Reid (South Florida).

I have the Wildcats at 3-17.

18. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (15-17, #16 tie). Rutgers returns more players than almost anybody, and see what it gets them? Their fate will be determined by freshmen Lino Mark, a guard, and Devonte Ware, a post.

I have the Knights at 1-19.

All-Conference

First Team

Rating the Point Guards

1. Braden Smith, Purdue 6-0 senior 16 ppg-9 reb-4 asts
2. Bruce Thornton, Ohio State 6-2 senior 18 ppg-3 asts
3. Bennett Stirtz, Iowa 6-4 senior 19 ppg-6 ast-2 stl (at Drake)
4. Eliot Cadeau, Michigan 6-1 junior 8 ppg-2 reb-5 ast (at North Carolina)
5. David Coit, Maryland 5-11 senior 13 ppg-2 reb-3 ast (at Kansas)
6. Desmond Claude, Washington 6-6 senior 16 ppg-4 reb-4 ast-48%
7. John Blackwell, Wisconsin 6-4 junior 11 ppg-5 reb-2 ast-45%
8. Jeremy Fears, Michigan State 6-2 soph 7 ppg-2 reb-5 ast-40%
9. Alijah Arenas, USC freshman 33 ppg-9 reb (in high school)
10. Jaxson Shelstad, Oregon 6-0 junior 14 ppg-3 reb-3 ast-45% shooting
11. Kylan Boswell, Illinois 6-2 senior 12 ppg-5 reb-3 ast-43%
12. Chansey Willis, Minnesota 6-2 junior 17 ppg-6 ast-2 stl (at Western Michigan)
13. Donovan Dent, UCLA 6-2 senior 13 ppg-2 reb-5 ast (at New Mexico)
14. Jayden Reid, Northwestern 5-10 junior 13 ppg-3 reb-4 ast-2 stl (at South Florida)
15. Kendall Blue, Nebraska 6-6 senior 12 ppg-4 reb-2 ast-51% (at St. Thomas)
16. Kayden Mingo, Penn State 6-3 freshman 14 ppg-5 reb-4 ast-2stl (in high school)
17. Conor Enright, Indiana 6-1 senior 6 ppg-3 reb-3 ast (at DePaul)
18. Lino Mark, Rutgers 6-2 freshman 15 ppg-3 ast (in high school)

Rating the Posts

1. Nate Bittle, Oregon 7-0 senior 14 ppg-8 reb-2 ast-51% shooting
2. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois 7-1 junior 13 ppg-8 reb-2 ast-49%
3. Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA 6-9 senior 13 ppg-5 reb-50%
4. Oscar Cluff, Purdue 6-11 senior 18 ppg-12 reb-63% (at South Dakota State)
5. Pharrell Payne, Maryland 6-9 senior 10 ppg-5 reb-64% (at Texas A&M)
6. Ezra Ausar, USC 6-9 senior 12 ppg-5 reb (at Utah)
7. Sam Alexis, Indiana 6-9 senior 7 ppg-6 reb-52% (at Florida)
8. Rienk Mast, Nebraska 6-10 senior 12 ppg-5 reb
9. Carson Cooper, Michigan State 6-11 senior 5 ppg-5 reb-60%
10. Nolan Winter, Wisconsin 7-0 junior 9 ppg-6 reb-56%
11. Franck Kepnang, Washington 6-11 senior 7 ppg-5 reb-53%
12. Christoph Tilly, Ohio State 7-0 senior 9 ppg-4 reb (at Santa Clara)
13. Adey Mara, Michigan 7-3 junior 5 ppg-3 reb (at UCLA)
14. Sasa Ciani, Penn State 6-10 junior 10 ppg-8 reb-53% (at Illinois-Chicago)
15. Jaylin Crocker-Johnson, Minnesota 6-8 junior 9 ppg-4 reb (at Colorado State)
16. Tyler Kropp, Northwestern 6-9 freshman 19 ppg-9 reb-3 ast (in high school)
17. Trevin Jirak, Iowa 6-11 freshman 16 ppg-9 reb-3 ast-2 blk-59% (in high school)
18. Gevonte Ware, Rutgers 6-9 freshman 11 ppg-10 reb-2 ast-54% (in high school)