Handicapping the Big 10–that is, men’s basketball–is not for the faint-hearted. First, there’s the continuing expansion of the transfer portal. Once upon a time, all you really had to do was to look at the talent returning from a year ago, and your job would almost be done. Then of course there was the occasional incoming freshman who could make an immediate impact. And now your job was done.
But that was then and this is now. The average Big 10 team has about 32 points per game of returning offensive production versus on average about 50 points per game of offensive production that has left the building. About half of that was natural attrition–i.e. “graduations” or at least players using up their eligibility–but the other half was the transfer portal. The Minnesota Gophers of course lost 2/3 of their production, almost all of it to the portal, but that’s nothin.’ Washington lost 80% of its production, Illinois 90%, USC 95%, the vast majority to the portal.
But of course the portal taketh away but the portal also giveth. The average team lost about 50 points per game, and the average team picked up about 50 points per game from the portal. USC picked up a mind-boggling 150 points per game on the portal. And therein lies the problem. The 900 points of departing production was all proven Big 10 production by proven Big 10 players. The 1,000 points of incoming production comes from all over. Sure, some of it comes from Arizona and Duke and Kentucky and Stanford. But a lot of it is coming from Belmont and Evansville and Nebraska-Omaha and Northern Colorado and Yale. How is that going to translate? These 80-some fellows who scored 1,000 points per game last year are not going to score 1,000 points a night in the Big 10. Some will fizzle out entirely. But which ones?
Secondly, you’ve got the once-in-a-lifetime necessity of integrating Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington intro your thinking, and we know a lot less about Oregon, USC and Washington basketball than we did about their football teams a few months ago. UCLA, of course, we know about, except that I don’t know how in the hell UCLA managed to win a measley 16 games last year. What’s with that?
So, first, a quick look at each of the teams in the Big 18.
Illinois won 29 games last year. They lost 86 ppg of offensive production to “graduation” and to the portal, and return a mere 8 points from last year’s roster. But they picked up 52 ppg from the portal led by 6-2 junior guard Kylan Boswell who scored 10 ppg last year at Arizona; Tre White, a 6-7 wing who scored 12 at Louisville; Carey Booth from Notre Dame; and Ben Humrichous, a 6-9 forward who scored 18 at Evansville. We know what to expect from Boswell, White and Booth while the jury’s out on Humrichous. Still, expect Illinois’ wins to drop from 29 to around 22. Coach Brad Underwood neither wins nor loses too many games all by himself.
Indiana won a mere 19 games last year, a real disaster, leaving a big question mark hanging over coach Mike Woodson. If he doesn’t win this year, you’ll know the answer to that question because the Hoosiers minimized their losses to the portal, hanging on to about 40 ppg of production while losing about the same, mostly to “graduation.” But, their incoming portal class is rated #2 in the nation with a pair of 6-3 soph guards–Myles Rice, who scored 15 ppg at Washington State last year, and Kanaan Carlyle, who scored 11 at Stanford; plus 7-foot Oumar Ballo who scored 14 at Arizona. And the top 3 returnees all scored in double figures for the Hoosiers. Look for at least 5 more wins than a year ago.
Iowa won 19 games last year and will be hard-pressed to match that this year. They lost 41 ppg while adding only 22 from the portal. They’ll be relying mostly on returnees Payton Sandfort (6-8, 16 ppg) and Owen Freeman (6-10, 11 ppg). Coach Fran McCaffrey is a “plus,” meaning he’ll steal more wins than the Hawkeyes’ talent deserves.
Maryland won a severely disappointing 16 games last year. They lost almost nothing to the portal because there was almost nothing to lose. It’s not obvious that their incoming portal talent is going to save the day. That includes Ja’Kobi Gillespie, a 6-1 junior guard who scored 17 ppg at Belmont; Selton Miguel, a 6-4 senior guard who scored 15 at South Florida; and Rodney Rice, a 6-4 sophomore guard who scored 7 at Virginia Tech. Still, their best player will be returnee Julian Reese, a 6-9 senior forward who scored 14 last year. That sounds like a middle of the pack team to me and, sure, they’ll win 2-3 more times than a year ago.
The Juwan Howard era is over at Michigan and now we’ll find out if Dusty May is the answer or not. The Wolves won just 16 games last year, a bigger disaster than Indiana winning 19. So the cheerfully traded 64 ppg of offensive production from last year that has now left the building, and returned only 20 ppg. But they loaded up with 52 ppg from the portal led by 7-1 senior Vladislav Goldin who scored 16 ppg at Florida Atlantic, where he of course played for Dusty May; and Roddy Gayle, the 6-5 junior who scored 13 ppg at Ohio State. Michigan will be a little better unless May is indeed the second coming of Coach K.
Michigan State and Tom Izzo remain old school, and last year that was only worth 20 wins, not a lot by Izzo’s standard. They lost 45 ppg from last year, returned 30 and added just 30 from the portal, so the cupboard, honestly, is a little thin. Their hopes to a large extent are riding on 6-7 senior forward Frankie Fidler, who scored 20 ppg last year at Omaha. Tre Holloman should finally move into the Spartans’ front rank, but I don’t see how they’re going to surpass last year’s win total.
That brings us to Minnesota, where the NIL money is simply not flowing at a D1/Big 10 level. And, so the losses to the portal were huge. 48 ppg left the building, to be replaced by 85 ppg coming in through the portal. But, how are those 85 points going to translate? That’s 15 ppg at Charlotte (likely point guard Lu’Cye Patterson), 12 ppg at Canisius and 11 ppg at New Mexico State, and so on. There is no question that the talent that left is better than the talent that arrived. We all know that coach Ben Johnson is indeed a genius but there’s no way they match last year’s 19 wins.
Nebraska lost 44 ppg, returns 40 and added 47 in the portal. And, in this case, the incoming–from UCLA, Rutgers, Washington, Utah and Wisconsin–is better than the outgoing. The Huskers somehow managed to win 23 times last year, so a little more Fred Hoiberg magic and, well, with the Big 10 improving all-around, they’ll have to settle for 23 again. And the truth is that the returnees Brice Williams, Rienk Mast and Juwan Gary will be doing the heaviest lifting.
Northwestern, not unlike Nebraska, seemed to make something out of almost nothing last year. OK, Boo Buie was pretty good, but still. 22 wins!? That’ll never happen again! Their portal pickups are pretty negligible. But, wait. They’ve got 4 starters back. Cohesion is always the name of their game and coach Chris Collins will steal a few. On paper I’d say 16 wins. On the floor I think they’ll manage 19.
Ohio State won 22 last year. Not a lot by their standards and so Jake Diebler is the new sheriff. They lost Roddy Gayle but added 7-1 Aaron Bradshaw from Kentucky, 6-9 Sam Stewart from Duke and 6-2 Meechie Johnson from South Carolina. The guard combo of Johnson and the returnee Bruce Thornton will tell the tale. I think they can win 22 again unless Diebler is in way over his head, which is unlikely.
Oregon won 24 games last year but that was against slightly less than Big 10 competition. Still, they’ll be good. Maybe you’ve seen their football team. They lost 59 ppg from last year, though not much of that was on the portal. No, the portal is the Ducks’ friend as they picked up 62 ppg of incoming talent. T.J. Bamba scored 10 at Villanova, and Brandon Angel 13 at Stanford. It remains to be seen how their long-distance schedule will affect them and all of their west-coast cohort. But Dana Altman can coach. Chalk them up for 21 wins.
Penn State lost about half of last year’s production, which is exactly par for the course. Their problem is that they added just 15 points in the portal. They won just 16 times last year and they won’t match that.
Purdue could not be more old school. They, too, return about half of last year’s production but of course half of their lost production was national player of the year Zach Edey. Their portal losses were pretty negligible, but that’s nothing compared to their portal gains. Zero. Nothing. Nada. But, wait, there are 5 incoming freshmen, at least a couple of whom will be hitting the floor forthwith. Still, the talent is not overwhelming except in the coaching box. They won 34 last year and certainly they’ll win more than 20 times this year.
Rutgers is definitely new school. They lost 3/4 of last year’s production, most notably center Clifford Omoruyi. They added 57 ppg from the portal but none of it is from a major conference. The real hope for the future are freshmen Airious Bailey and Dylan Harper, rated #2 and #4 nationally coming in. They won just 15 games last year and they’ll be rebuilding. Steve Pikiell is reputed to be a pretty good coach but 8 years of Steve Pikiell has left Rutgers, well, rebuilding. Pencil them in for 17 wins unless Bailey and Harper are even better than advertised.
OK, we’re in the home stretch now! And what a home stretch, starting with UCLA. The Bruins return a pretty typical 43 ppg though their portal losses were negligible. But they added 74 ppg from the portal, 4th best numerically, but better than that really because 4 of the 5 come from major conferences, led by 6-9 junior forward Tyler Bilodeau (14 ppg at Oregon State); Skyy Clark, 6-3 junior guard, 13 ppg at Louisville; and Kobe Johnson, 6-6 senior guard, 11 ppg at USC. UCLA won an amazingly few 16 times last year, and one wonders what Mick Cronin was doing. They should win half again as many this year.
USC was worse with 15 wins so it was hasta la vista to 78 ppg of offensive production. OK, Kobe Johnson, that hurts but that’s almost more than he moved across town to UCLA than anything. But they grabbed 150 ppg off the portal. How the heck are you going to put 150 ppg out on the floor? You’re not. But coach Eric Musselman can and will put 6 transfers out there and take his chances. They are 6-6 junior guard Desmond Claude (16 ppg at Xavier); Terrance Williams, 6-7 senior forward (12 ppg at Michigan); Bryce Pope, 6-3 senior guard, 18 ppg at UCSD; Chibuzo Agbo, 6-7 senior guard (14 ppg at Boise); Clark Slajchert, 6-1 senior guard, 18 ppg at Penn; and Saint Thomas, 6-7 senior forward (20 ppg at Northern Colorado). Can Musselman get these guys on the same page? If so, and if it is possible to win just by living off the portal, then the Trojans will win. But those are real questions, so I figure, yes, they’ll win but only about 22 times.
Washington took the USC route, coughing up 75 ppg in departures from last year, returning just 13 ppg, and loading up with 96 portal points. But, frankly, these portal points are not like USC’s or UCLA’s. Washington’s come from Portland and Utah State and Butler and Rice. Well, it should be noted that Great Osobor, a 6-8 senior forward from Utah State, is very highly regarded. Another unknown is coach Danny Sprinkle in his first year in Seattle. Still, he’s been to the last 3 NCAA tournaments at Montana State and Utah State, where he coached Osobor. Washington won 17 times last year. Pencil them in for 18.
Finally, you know, last and least, Wisconsin. The Badgers did what the Badgers do last year, somehow winning 22 games with an oh, so, unimpressive lineup. Like most teams, they return half of last year’s production but there is nobody you would think of as all-Big 10. They added 2 scorers from the portal, but they’re coming from Central Arkansas and Northern Illinois. In other words, unproven. On paper, Wisconsin can’t match those 22 wins, bur stir in coach Greg Gard, who will steal more wins that anybody in the league, and call it 19.
Summary of Projected Wins
So here’s what I said up above.
24 wins–Indiana and UCLA
23 wins–Nebraska and Purdue
22 wins–Illinois, Ohio State and USC
21 wins–Oregon
20 wins–Michigan State
19 wins–Northwestern and Wisconsin
18 wins–Iowa, Michigan, Maryland and Washington
17 wins–Minnesota and Rutgers
14 wins–Penn State
If there’s a wild card, it is that Nebraska is up there too high, and Oregon is too low. So…
One More Quick Run-Through until I change my mind
1. UCLA
2. Indiana
3. Ohio State–there’s a gap between #2 and #3
4. Nebraska–can’t quite shake ’em outta there
5. Purdue
6. Oregon
7. Illinois
8. USC
9. Northwestern and Wisconsin
11. Maryland–there’s another gap between NU, Wisky and Maryland
12. Michigan State
13. Michigan
14. Washington
15. Minnesota
16. Iowa
17. Rutgers
18. Penn State
OK, now here’s a question for another day. What’s format of the Big 10 tournament going to be??? We’ll also be back with the half of the 2025 all-America team that is playing in the Big 10.