The Wolves have 4 games under their belt. You might know that in my pre-season preview I had them #2 in the West, but if you read between the lines you also know that I hedged a little bit. Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Dallas and Denver are the big 4, I said, and they could finish in almost any order. But, now, the Wolves have 4 games under their belt, and they’re what you might call a disappointing 2-2. Of course they were 2-2 a year ago and things turned out OK. But, last year they had a signature win by now, 110-89 over the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets in game 4. This year they do not yet have a signature win. Instead, they lost game 4 in what would have been a signature win, had they in fact won, against the Dallas Mavericks, their nemesis in the 2024 playoffs, 120-114. But, sure, maybe it’s too early to worry. But worry is what bloggers like me don’t get paid to do.
So I coiuld keep this real simple and just say that there’s trouble in paradise: The Wolves can’t seem to handle Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and they ca’t seem to beat the Dallas Mavs. But the fact is that the signs of trouble run a little deeper than that.
1) The Defense. Last year the Wolves emerged, totally unexpectedly if you know their history, as the NBA’s best defensive team, giving up 106 ppg. Now they’re giving up 112. Last year the Wolves outshot their opponents 48-45 percent, This year the margin in 48-47%. It’s early, but does it seem plausible that they’re going to get their defensive numbers back down to 106 ppg and 45% shooting considering their changes in personnel? Neither Karl Towns nor Julius Randle is know for his defense, but Towns at least had a size advantage most nights. Randle does not. Edwards and McDaniel and Alexander Walker are back on the perimeter, while Dante DiVincenzo replaces Kyle Anderson. That’s a big negative. So, no, this rotation is never gonna get back down to 106.
2. Turnovers. What is even worse is that 3 of the Wolves opponents so far have enjoyed a total of 26 more possessions (almost 9 per game) than the Wolves. Dallas had 12 more possessions than the Wolves did. We outshot them 51-48% but they got off 12 more shots. That’s because of turnovers. The Wolves are turning it over by the buckets full.
3_ The play of guards Mike Conley and Dante DeVincenzo. Conley and DeVincenzo are not the ones turning the ball over, by the way. Ant Edwards, Randle, Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert are the ones doing that. But Conley and DiVincenzo are shooting 23 and 31% overall and both 27% on 3s. That’s gotta change. Conley is of ciurse 37 years oldm, k
It is of no particular solace to note that the Knicks are having the same experience as the Wolves. They are 1-2 right now. They have scored 1 point less than last year and have given up 5 more. Both same as the Wolves. Karl’s offesive production is down from 22 ppg to 15. Most pundits thought that the Knicks got the better of the Randle-KA trade, but so far it is hard to say that it is so. Still, that does not mean that the Wolves are any better than they were.
The Wolves next 8 games are all winnable, and this is exactly when the Wolves ripped off 7 straight wins last year (games 4 through 10). Now they get Denver at home, at San Antone, Charlotte, at Chicago, Portland, Miami and 2 bak-to-backs against Portland. They don’t have to play a whole lot better than they already have to win 6 of 8. Anything less than that will further suggest that the Wolves are taking a step backward.