It has been a crazy WNBA season. It began last spring with a flurry of cheap shots and trash talk and bad feelings, much of it seemingly directed toward Indiana Fever superstar Caitlin Clark. Then came the injury phase of the season, with a flurry of injuries to key players including of course Clark herself, and also Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty, who dropped from 2nd to 5th in the playoff seeds as a result, and the Lynx’ Napheesa Collier, whose injury may very well have cost her the MVP award.
But, after all of that, the WNBA playoff matchups finally were settled on the very last night of the regular season. The Las Vegas Aces won their 16th straight game to clinch the #2 seed and to set up the various first round matchups.
The Lynx
Golden State lost to the Lynx on this last night of the regular season 72-53 to fall to 8th place based on a tie-breaker with the Seattle Storm. The Lynx were 27-5 a month ago but finished just 7-5 due to an injury to Napheesa Collier, then resting several of their regulars in the final week. Considering that they get the Valkyries in the playoffs, the Lynx easy win to close the season, in which coach Cheryl Reeve played most of her regular rotation, seemed to be a good way to go into the first round of the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Lynx right now are or have been without the “instant offense” of 5-11 wing DiJonai Carrington, who was acquired from the Dallas Wings on August 3 and promptly scored 40 points in her first 3 games with the Lynx. She now has scored about 9 ppg in 11 games, but she has now missed 4 straight games with a shoulder injury that has bothered her all season. Assistant coach Eric Thibault said before the regular season finale, “I don’t know if she’s getting close to returning. I’m not speaking of any timelines.” OK, that doesn’t sound good.
Of course, Carrington’s injury doesn’t feel like a real loss or setback because she has only been a member of the team for five or six weeks, and the players that the Lynx traded to get her, Diamond Miller and Karlie Samuelson, weren’t playing. Still, right now, coach Reeve’s rotation consists for all intents and purposes of 7 players–Alanna Smith, Bridget Carlton, Jessica Shepard, Napheesa Collier, Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride and Natisha Heideman. Plan B in case of another injury or an off-night is, well, to play with 6? The deeper bench is:
• 6-4 forward Maria Kliundikova, who is averaging 11 minutes, 4 points, 3 boards and 50 percent shooting
• 6-1 forward Anastasiia Kosu, 4 minutes, 2 points, 45 percent
• 6-1 forward Camryn Taylor, and 5-7 guard Jaylyn Sherrod, who have played in just 14 games total between them and for a total of 9 minites combined. I am not aware of any other player(s) who are under the jurisdiction of the Lynx at the present time. So they’re a little bit thinner than you might wish.
On the other hand, the Lynx went 7-3 without their superstar and MVP candidate Collier. The chatter was that, well, maybe she’s not all that valuable after all. The Lynx win without her. And, while Collier was out, by the way, the Aces won 16 straight gamesm including 97-87 over the Lynx in Vegas last Saturday. The Aces’ last loss was an improbable 111-58 drubbing by the Lynx on August 2. And 2-time MVP Aja Wilson reasserted herself in the MVP race.
• Collier finished averaging 23 ppg, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 53 percent shooting. The Lynx were 27-7 with Collier, 7-3 without.
• Wilson finished at 23 ppg, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks and 50 percent shooting. Her team was 30-11 with Wilson in the lineup, 0-3 when she was out.
Playoff Seeds
So the seeds ended up as follows.
1. Minnesota Lynx 34-10, 6-4 in the last 10
2. Las Vegas Aces 30-14, 10-0
3. Atlanta Dream 30-14, 8-2
4. Phoenix Mercury 27-17, 6-4
5. New York Liberty 27-17, 6-4, officially the defending champions though we know better
6. Indiana Fever 24-20, 6-4
7. Seattle Storm 23-21, 6-4
8. Golden State Valkyries 23-21, 5-5, expansion franchise
Factoring in everybody’s performance in their last ten games, I would seed them this way: 1. Vegas, 2. the Lynx, 3. Atlanta, 4. the Liberty, 5. Phoenix, 6-7-8. as is.
#1 Minnesota Lynx (34-10) vs. #8 Golden State Valkyries (23-21)
So we can cheerfully pick the Lynx to win its first round series 2 games to none. Golden State has certainly played well for an expansion team and their coach, Natalie Nakase, is widely touted as a coach of the year candidate. They outscored their opponents an averge of 79-77, and held opponents to 41 percent shooting from the field, which is the league’s best. Meanwhile, the Lynx shoot a league-best 47 percent. We outshot the Valkyries 43 percent to 29 the other night, and we can only hope to do the same going forward.
#4 Phoenix Mercury (27-17) vs. #5 New York Liberty (27-17)
The Mercury lost to the lowly Dallas Wings 97-76 to fall into a tie for 4th and 5th place with the New York Liberty, who defeated the Angel Reese-less Chicago Sky 91-86. But, the fact is that the Mercury holds the tie-breaker over the Liberty, and will have the home court advantage in their first round series. The Libs finished just 6-5 due to an injury to Sabrina Ionescu, who returned, however, for the Libs’ final two games. She wasn’t sharp, but she’s back. The Liberty also were without Breanna Stewart for several games in the second half of the season, and so the Libs’ 27-17 record is more than a little bit deceiving. There was a time when the Libs were 17-6.
Still, the Mercury are a serious threat to the Libs, especially with the home court in a short, 3-game series. The Mercs feature forward Alyssa Thomas, who leads the league in both rebounds and assists with 9 of each, and is a solid MVP candidate. Phoenix finished 8-3. Still, we like the Libs, 2 games to 1.
#2 Las Vegas Aces (30-14) vs. #7 Seattle Storm (23-21)
The Lynx beat the Aces 111-58 on August 2. That embarrassment is cited as part of the reason that the Aces have not lost since, over a period of 16 games. The Lynx’ Napheesa Collier seemed to have wrapped up the MVP award as of August 2, but she then missed 10 games. Not only did Vegas’ Aja Wilson go on a tear, but the Lynx won 7 of 10 games without their star. Some said that, well, if her team can win without her, then she can’t be the most valuable. That is of course BS, and yet I would have to agree that Wilson is probably going to win her 3rd MVP award. Vegas won 3 of 4 regular season games from the Storm, and should have no trouble sweeping the Storm in their playoff series.
#3 Atlanta Dream (30-14) vs. #6 Indiana Fever (24-20)
Most WNBA fans would have expected these 2 teams to finish in reverse order. Atlanta was just 15-25 a year ago, while Indiana was 20-20. But the Fever played without Caitlin Clark most of the way, and Sophie Cunningham over the final 2-3 weeks. Still they managed to finish 6-4 and to hold on to 6th place. But, Atlanta finished 9-2 and is the league’s top rebounding team. They sweep their playoff series 2 games to none.
Semi-Finals
#1 Lynx versus #5 Liberty
A replay, of course, of last year’s controversial WNBA finals. The Lynx won that series on the floor, fair and square, and were cheated by their league and by the game officials. That’s a fact. Last year it was a best of 5-games final, and you may recall that the officials, intimidated by all of the New York talk and favoritism and commissioner Cathy Engelbert’s sparkly dress featuring various icons of the New York skyline, put the Libs on the line 25 times, the Lynx just 8 in game 5. The decisive points were a pair of FT scored by Breanna Stewart on a touch foul call after she (Stewart) had very obviously committed a traveling violation that the officials did not wish to see and, therefore, did not see. “The game was stolen from us,” coach Reeve said, and of course she was correct. LeBron James and many others agreed. Of course, it’s also a fact that none of this will have any influence whatsoever over who wins the series this year. The main cause for hope is that the Lynx will get game 5, if there is a game 5, at the Target Center.
Bottom likne: the Libs are now at full strength, and they represent a formidable obstacle to the Lynx in their effort to right the wrongs of 2016 and 2024. The tale of the tape ssays:
• The Lynx outscored their opponents 87-77, the Libs 85-81.
• The Lynx outshot their opponents 47 percent to 42, the Libs 45.5 to 42.
• The Libs have a slightly deeper roster as long as Carrington is out for the Lynx, and they have awesome size–06-6, 6-5, 6-5 and 6-5, 6-4 off the bench. The Lynx are 6-4, 6-2, 6-1 and 6-4 off the bench.
The whole key to this series is that fact that the Lynx have had good success in defending Ionescu. Courtney Williams and Ionescu, rather than Collier and Stewart, will decide this series. Alana Smith, Carlton and Shepard will have their hands full defending inside, but the Libs’ Ionescu and Cloud will have their hands full defending Williams, McBride and Heideman on the perimeter.
Still, I have to say advantage Libs 3 games to 2.
#2 Vegas versus #3 Atlanta
Vegas could easily be on an 18-game win streak by now. But consider the following.
• Atlanta outscored its opponents 83-77, Vegas 83-82
• Atlanta outshot its opponents, well, just 44-43 percent, but Vegas got outshot 43-44 percent
• Atlanta is the league’s top rebounding team, and will turn the ball over less than Vegas
But of course all of that is reflective of the whole season in which Vegas started 14-14. They’re now 16-0 since then. Will the real Aces please stand up? Well, they probably have and are. They won’t go unbeaten in the playoffs, but they are going to be almost impossible to beat. Still, Atlanta can hold its own inside, and its guards might be better than Vegas.’
Vegas guards are Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Dana Evans and Jewel Loyd. They are averaging 45 ppg, 14 assists, 7 turnovers and 37 percent shooting. Atlanta’s are Allisha Gray, Ryne Howard, Jordin Canada, Maya Caldwell and Te-Hina Paopao, who scored 57 points with 20 assists and 8 turnovers, and shoot 41 percent.
But then again, Vegas won the season series 3 games to none. But Atlanta lost by just 2 and 6 during Vegas’ big winning streak. Still, I gotta go with Vegas 3 games to 2.
#2 Vegas versus #5 Liberty in the final
This is a best of 7 this year and Vegas will have the home ice. We noted above, however, that the Libs outscored their opponents 85-81 and outshot them 45 to 42 percent, while Vegas’ numbers were 83-82, and 43 percent versus 44. They were outshot by their opponents on the season. I like (well, I don’t “like” but I have to pick) the Liberty in 7. But it’s been a crazy year in the WNBA and, frankly, the Libs are not much better than a toss-up in their first round series against Phoenix. You saw my seeds up above:
1. Vegas, 2. the Lynx, 3. Atlanta, 4. the Liberty, 5. Phoenix. Any one of the first 4 could win this thing, including the Lynx.