Mara Braun out again–is it time to panic?

Mara Braun, as you surely know, has broken the same bone in the same foot that required surgery a year ago. Last year she missed 11 games and the Gophers went 2-9 without her. She returned for the post-season NIT, and led the Gophers to a 4-1 record and 2nd place. So the Gophers with Mara were 18-7. The Gophers without Mara were 2-9. ‘Nuff sed.

Of course, it’s true that Sophie Hart missed 6 of those 11 games that Mara also missed. So, in reality, the Gophers without Mara were 1-4 and were outscored by an average of 74-67. The Gophers without Mara and Sophie were 1-5 and were outscored by an average of 79-55.

All of this is by way of wondering, well, what can coach Dawn Plitzuweit and her Gophers be expected to do without Mara Braun again in 2024-2025? Right now they’re saying that she’s out “indefinitely.” Last year it was 11 games. What with this being a recurring injury, you’d have to think that an excess of caution would be exercised. In other words, I can’t imagine that we’re going to see Mara Braun out there on the court again until the fall of 2025.

Well, the good news is that this is not 2023-2024. It’s 2024-2025, and everybody knows that Coach P has upraded the talent level by one giant step over a year ago. Take a look.

Gophers Rotations

2023-2024 with Braun 2023-2024 without Braun 2024-2025 with Braun 2024-2025 without Braun
1. Grocholski 34 min. Grocholski 34 min. Braun 29 min. Grocholski 28 min.
2. Heyer 34 Heyer 34 Grocholski 28 Battle 25
3. Braun 33 Battle 32 Battle 25 Heyer 20
4. Battle 32 Hart 24 Heyer 20 Woodson 18
5. Hart 24 Sanders 19 Woodson 18 McKinney 18
6. Sanders 19 Czinano 14 McKinney 18 Stewart 17
7. Czinano 14 Holloway 13 Stewart 17 Hart 16
8. Holloway 13 A. Johnson 10 Hart 16 Rose 13
9. A. Johnson 10 Madok 6 Rose 13 Czinano 8
10. Madok 6 Senden 4 Czinano, M. Johnson 8 M. Johnson 8

 

In the post, Sophie Hart remains Sophie Hart, which is to say a solid post and a reasonable matchup even for most Big 10 posts on most nights. But, now, Sophie Hart and Annika Stewart are a giant leap better than Hart and Aiyanna Johnson. Johnson, by the way, is playing 11 minutes per game at Colorado, scoring 3 points with 3 boards and 44% from the field. Stewart is at 17 minutes, 12 points, 3 boards and 58%. Niamaya Holloway is the 3rd option.

Heyer and Grocholski continue to hold down the forward spots. Last year their backups were Niamaya Holloway and Maggie Czinano, This year, their backups were Taylor Woodson and Tori McKinney. Now with Braun out, their backups are Woodson, Czinano and Holloway. Woodson represents as big a step forward as Stewart, maybe more in light of the fact that Woodson hopefully will be here for several years.

At the point guard, you’ve got Amaya Battle and Alexis Rose, while last year you had Amaya Battle and Janay Sanders. So far, Rose having played in just 7 Gopher games, I would have to say that Sanders was a little bit better. But, then, again, when Braun went down, Sanders moved into the starting lineup at the 2. Sanders was still the backup 1, while Czinano was the 3rd option. Now, Czinano remains the 3rd option but her minutes are down from 14 to 8.

That’s because of Tori McKinney, the true freshman wing. McKinney backed up the small forward and shooting guard spots. But, now, with Braun out, she, like Janay Sanders, moves into the starting lineup. But McKinney’s move, unlike Sanders, doesn’t weaken the Gophers at the 1. Maybe it weakens them a little at the 3. Or, maybe Tori continues to play some at the 3, at which point her new backup, the other true freshman, McKenna Johnson, subs in at the 2. Czinano can also fill in at both guards. But, even with Braun out, Johnson and Czinano are just the #9 and #10 players in the rotation. Last year, with Braun out, Czinano was #6.

So the additions of Stewart and Woodson and especially Tori McKinney has insulated the Gophers against anything like last year’s 2-9 debacle without Mara Braun. Last year, with Braun,out, the Gophers had about 4.5 competitive Big 10 caliber front line players. This year, with Braun out, they’re at about 7.5 such players. Like I said, pretty much a giant leap forward.

In my pre-season Big 10 (18) preview, I had the Gophers 6th. OK, even with Mara Braun, that was maybe a little bullish. Or, maybe not. Right now I’m thinking 8-10 in the Big 10 good for 8th or 9th. With an 11-1 non-conference record (but no signature wins), then they’re 19-11 and firmly on the bubble. An NCAA invite is not out of the question. It’s a stretch goal. Last year, without Mara Braun, there was of course no way. This year I think there is still a way.

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