NBA 2025-2026 Preview, Part I–The Timberwolves and the West

The Timberwolves open their 2025-2026 Saturday at Denver at 8 p.m. for its 1st pre-season game. Four more pre-season games follow at the Knicks, Philadelphia and Chicago, with just a Tuesday October 7 7 p.m. game at home against the Indiana Pacers. The regular season also opens on the road, at Portland, on Wednesday October 12 at 9 p.m. We worry that with little or no depth, the Wolves may not achieve the success that they’ve had in the past 2 years. For fans, it might be a case of “hopes too high.” I mean, they’ll be good and they’ll make the playoffs. But the Western finals would seem to be a stretch this time out.

NBA Preview—The West

The conventional wisdom long has been that the NBA Western Division is tougher than the East, and that one or two Eastern teams would make the playoffs each year with records that weren’t good enough in the West. I think it’s true, though I’m not about to do the research necessary to prove it. But, I did the research back (just) to 2020, and I can say this. Twice in the 2020’s, the East did indeed have 2 playoff teams that wouldn’t have made it in the West. But, the West also twice had 2 teams that made the playoffs that wouldn’t have qualified in the East. The 2 divisions have broken even over the past 6 years.

And, yet, it’s true that there has been an exodus of talent from East to West in recent years. Among star-quality players:

• Moved West to East—Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard (now injured, but moved back to the West anyway), Karl-Anthony Towns, Paul George
• Moved East to West—Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle

Not only this, but 17 of the last 26 NBA champions have been from the West, meaning almost a 2-to-1 margin. And, last year, the West won 638 regular season games while losing 592. Still, of the top 20 NBA teams last year, 10 were in the East and 10 were in the West. This year, we see the West increasing its lead just a little bit, that is, by 4 games—4 more wins, for a total record of 642-588. The East will be down by the reverse numbers.

Here is my forecast of the final standings in the West.

Scouting Reports

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 68-14 (prediction for 2025-2026), 68-14 (2024-2025), +/-0 wins. The Thunder should be even better than a year ago, but with the West as a whole being better, too, OKC will break even with 68 wins, the same as last year. That’s plenty to get the #1 seed and the home court advantage both in the West and overall. And, there’s no reason to think they won’t be the best team throughout the playoffs as well, and repeat as NBA champions.

The analysis here is pretty simple. OKC returns pretty much everybody from their NBA champions of a year ago, and almost everybody remains young and improving individually. The only opponent that is likely to derail the Thunder repeat express is an injury to the returning NBA MVP Shea Gilgeous-Alexander. The fact is that the Thunder is so good and so deep that they can compensate for pretty much any other injury or two better than any other NBA team.

SGA remains the Thunder’s best player, and is the odds-on favorite to repeat as MVP. Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Ant Edwards could push SGA for MVP, but pushing him and beating him are 2 different things. Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren are an awesome tandem in the post, and they can also play side-by-side. Jalen Williams can play the 3 or the 4, and is among the NBA’s best forwards either way. Their cast-of-thousands at the 2-spot means that they can find somebody with a hot hand almost anywhere, anytime. It might be Aaron Wiggins one night, then Isaiah Joe the next, then Carson Wallace, then Alex Caruso.

The quickness of SGA and others on the perimeter defense is simple frightening. They pretty much took Ant Edwards out of the Timberwolves offense in the playoffs. They doubled him to distraction while also being able to chase everybody else down. Nobody else in theentire NBA did that.

2. Denver Nuggets 55-27 (2026), 50-32 (2025), +5 wins. Denver appears to be improved simply by adding a better cast to come off the bench and spell Denver’s starting 5. All-star center Nikola Jokic is now backed up by Jonas Valanciunas. Power forward Aaron Gordon is backed up by Cam Johnson. Tim Hardaway, Jr., replaces Russell Westbrook as the first guard off the bench. But Denver’s prospects are still driven mostly by Jokic, who shows little sign of slowing down.
3. Houston Rockets 57-25 (2026), 52-30 (2025), +5 wins. The Rockets have added Kevin Durant to its nucleus of in-their-prime players Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and Jeff Green. Clint Capela, Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Okogie also come on board to give the Rockets pretty much a new bench. And, Houston lost only forward Dillon Brooks in all of its wheeling and dealing. I’m not even convinced that Durant makes them a whole lot better. He’s not done that well in his last 2 “big moves.” It’s really Sengun and Green who make these guys go. Still, it can’t hurt too much to have a 7-foot wing who will score 25 ppg. But Houston recently  suffered a big blow when point guard Fred Van Vleet went down with an ACL on September 22. He is not expected back all season. One depth chart shows small forward Amen Thompson moving over. Their only true 1s are journeymen Reed Shepard and Aaron Holiday.
4. Los Angeles Lakers 53-29 (2026), 50-32 (2025), +3 wins. On paper, the Lakers’ 1-2 punch of Doncic and LeBron James is pretty awesome, but we both know that LeBron is not capable of a 100 percent effort every night, and the rest of the Lakers–DeAndre Ayton, Rua Hachimura and Austin Reaves—do not inspire fear in the hearts of their opponents.

Still, the bottom line is that Lakers were not bad before Luka—28-19, .596, a rate that would have produced a 49-33 record for the full season. After acquiring Doncic on February 2 (and giving up Anthony Davis), the Lakers went 22-13, .629, for a 52-30 rate. So, in other words, they improved by 3 games on a full-season basis. And, so, we’ll forecast a 3-game improvement over last year.

5. Los Angeles Clippers 45-37 (2026), 50-32 (2025), -5 wins. This forecast is based on the assumption that Kawhi Leonard both remains with the Clippers and is healthy. Neither is assured. You may have heard that the Clips—well, that is, one of their sponsors—gave Leonard a $48 million “no-show” contract—that is, a job that he never showed up to. It was an obvious plan to circumvent the salary cap. 20-some years ago, the Timberwolves did the same thing, more or less, for Joe Smith. The penalties were a year-long suspension for owner Glen Taylor, the voiding of Smith’s contract, and the loss of 4 #1 draft picks. The latter killed the Wolves for 20 years. But, the Wolves being from Minnesota and all of that, and the Clippers being in L.A., don’t expect the Clippers to get half of the penalties the Wolves suffered. They’ll get a slap on the wrist, and Leonard will continue to play for them. Of course, the Clips are actually hoping the league voids Leonard’s contract because he gets $50 million a year and he’s always hurt.

But even assuming that Leonard is not hurt, you will be surprised to learn that power forward John Collins—and not Leonard, not guards James Harden, Chris Paul and Bradley Beal, and not centers Ivica Zubac and Brook Lopez, but John Collins—is their best player. Bogdan Bogdanovic is ut for now, but that’s neither serious nor long-term.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves 44-38 (2026), 49-33 (2025), -5 wins. You may recall that the Wolves gave up 10 players and picks to get Rudy Gobert. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have done it. The Wolves’ success these past 2 years speaks for itself. But a lot of depth was sacrificed and, now, with the loss of Kyle Anderson and Nickiell Alexander-Walker to free agency these past 2 years, the lack of depth begins to become a problem. There is a lack of resources with which to replenish the roster. So, for the moment, the Wolves have a 7-man rotation of experienced players ready to go, Oklahoma City has 9, Denver and Houston have 10.

The Wolves maintained their roster numbers in part with their 2-for-1 trade of KAT for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, but otherwise the draft is the only available resource, and of course the Timberwolves’ success means that they are not getting high draft choices. Well, guard Rob Dillingham was an 8^th overall pick in 2024, I guess that’s a high draft pick, while Terrence Shannon with a #27 pick in the same year. Dillingham and Shannon both played about 10 minutes per game and scored 4.5 ppg in their rookie years (2024-2025). One or the other will have to join the Wolves’ rotation in order for the team to maintain an 8-man rotation, and it is not yet obvious whether either of them is ready for such duty.

After the Wolves picked Dillingham at #8, by the way, 14 of the next 16 picks averaged 58 games played, 25 games started, 21 minutes, 8 ppg, 4 reb, and shot 44/33/76%, all in their rookie seasons of 2024-2025. Dillingham, again, played 10 minutes and scored 4.5 ppg. Whether this differential goes to Dillingham’s readiness or to the Wolves’ reluctance to play anybody but its top 7 or 8 players remains to be seen. After the Wolves picked Shannon at #27, the next 6 picks averaged 65 games played, 36 games started, 21 minutes, 7.5 ppg, 4 reb, and shot 43/30/69%. Shannon, again, played 10 minutes and scored 4.5 ppg. It is not obvious that the Wolves optimized those draft choices. If they did, there needs to be some payback starting now.

The Wolves’ recent success speaks for itself. But, Wolves fans might be cautious about getting their hopes too high for 2025-2026. There is no margin for error.

Timberwolves Depth Chart

7. Memphis Grizzlies 43-39 (2026), 44-38 (2025), -1 win. This assumes that Ja Morant stays out of trouble. But, with the departure of Desmond Bane, Memphis is treading water. Who is the 2^nd option? Well, I guess it’s the 6-10 center and power forward Jaren Jackson. And the 3^rd? Forwards Santi Aldama or Jaylen Wells? Or Scottie Pippen, Jr? But, he plays the same position as Morant. I just can’t quite see that roster contending for anything more than just a playoff spot.
8. San Antonio Spurs 42-40 (2026), 34-48 (2025), +8 wins. The Spurs remain tomorrow’s team, but when is tomorrow going to arrive? Well, maybe today, if you consider 42 wins and 8^th place to be a milestone. Frankly, Wembayana’s impact on basketball games has been overstated and, so, for this crew, 42 wins and 8^th place is a milestone. Of course, the Spurs traded for point guard De’Aaron Fox, who then got hurt, and they also have the current rookie of the year, Stephon Castle, who is also a point guard. Fos is said to be out til November and/or probable for the opener, depnding on the source. Overall, they added 3 useful players, including rookie Dylan Harper, and they only gave up guard Chris Paul. So they’ll be better but not specifically because of Wemby.
9. Golden Staten Warriors 41-41 (2026), 48-34 (2025), -7 wins. It’s the end of an era at Golden State. Steph Curry is 37, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler are 35; Klay Thompson, and not to even mention Kevin Durant, are long gone. And, at some point Butler will get disillusioned and demand a trade, and that will be the end of that.
10. Sacramento Kings 40-42 (2026), 40-42 (2025), +/-0 wins. Sacramento gave up point guard De’Aaron Fox voluntarily last year and apparently have replaced him with the German, Dennis Schroder. They’ve also lost 2 rotation players with no obvious replacement. Domantas Sabonis remains in the post, and he is a wonderful player, and DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine can fill it up. But they haven’t improved themselves, other than by virtue of the fact that Sabonis is in the middle of his prime. Unfortunately, Sabonis is being wasted on a team that doesn’t seem to know or care how to improve.
11. Dallas Mavericks 39-43 (2026), 39-43 (2025), -+/-0 wins. Dallas gave up Luka Doncic, and people immediately started calling them a contender. Say what? Well, they got Anthony Davis for Doncic, but of course he is always hurt. And, then, Kyrie Irving got hurt and he is not expected back until January 1. But, then they got dumb-ass lucky and got Cooper Flagg with the #1 draft pick. Actually forwards Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington might be their best players. Still, it comes down to the health of AD and Kyrie, and the odds are that both are going to miss some time, and their team is going to miss the playoffs despite the best efforts of “superman” Cooper Flagg.
12. Phoenix Suns 36-46 (2026), 36-46 (2025), +/-0 wins. Phoenix cleaned house—bye-bye KD, bye-bye Bradley Beal, bye-bye Tyus Jones, bye-bye Jusuf Nurkic—and they might be just a little bit better this year. But, there is no upside at the present time. This is now definitely Devin Booker’s team, and newcomers Jeff Green and center Mark Williams represent significant improvements over Nurkic and Beal. But, finally, it’s a rebuilding year and a break-even record.
13. Portland Trailblazers 35-47 (2026), 36-46 (2025), -1 win. Portland brought back Damian Lillard, but it does not look like he’ll be playing this season, due to an injury. Point guard Scoot Henderson is also hurt and is expected back around November 1. Thank goodness they picked veteran Jrue Holiday. They also sent DeAndre Ayton away (addition by subtraction). It says here that Donovan Clingan is ready to take over in the paint. Portland is perhaps on a better path but they’re not going to reap too many rewards this year.
14. New Orleans Pelicans 26-56 (2026), 23-49 (2025), +3 wins. Zion Williamson, Derik Queen, Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones all open the season hurt. As always with New Orleans, it’s a question of whether Zion can play. He has played an average of 36 games per year over 6 years. (Anthony Davis has averaged about 60.) And point guard Murray is also hurt and is not expected back until January 1. Still, uou’ve got to figure that the Pelicans are improved, but we figured that every year and it ain’t happened yet.
15. Utah Jazz 17-65 (2026), 17-65 (2025), +/-0 wins. What is it with the Utah Jazz? They can never seem to get rid of their best ball players fast enough. Donovan Mitchell comes to mind. Now, they’ve moved power forward John Collins (19 ppg-8 rebounds, 53%), shooting guard Collin Sexton (18 ppg, 48%), and shooting guard Jordan Clarkson (16 ppg). They’ve added rookies Ace Bailey, Walter Clayton and John Tonje, but even if they pan out, how long will it be before they win some games, and then now long will it be’re gone. I have no idea what Utah is thinkin.’

All-Pro West

Rating the Point Guards

1. Shea Gilgeous Alexander, Oklahoma City, 6-6, 33 ppg-5 reb-6 ast-52%
2. Luka Doncic, L.A. Lakers, 6-6, 28 ppg-8 reb-8 ast-45%
3. Devon Booker, Phoenix, 6-6, 26 ppg-4 reb-7 ast-46%
4. Ja Morant, Memphis, 6-2, 23 ppg-4 reb-7 ast-45%
5. De’Aaron Fox, San Antonio, 6-3, 23 ppg-5 reb-6 ast-46% (injured)
6. Kyrie Irving, Dallas, 6-2, 25 ppg-5 reb-5 ast-47% (injured)
7. James Harden, L.A. Clippers, 6-5, 23 ppg-6 re-9 asst-41%
8. Jamal Murray, Denver, 6-4, 21 ppg-4 reb-6 ast-45%
9. Keyonte George, Utah, 6-4, 17 ppg-4 reb-6 ast-39%
10. Dejounte Murray, New Orleans, 6-4, 17 ppg-6 reb-7 ast-39% (injured)
11. Brandon Podziemski, Golden State, 6-4, 12 ppg-4 reb-3 ast-45%
12. (Donte DiVincenzo, Minnesota, 6-4, 26 min, 12 ppg-4 reb-4 ast-42%)
13. Scoot Henderson, Portland, 6-3, 13 ppg-3 reb-5 ast-42% (injured)
14. Fred Van Vleet, Houston, 6-0, 14 ppg-4 reb-6 ast-38% (injured)
15. Dennis Schroder, Sacramento, 6-1, 13 ppg-3 reb-5 ast-40%
16. (Mike Conley, Minnesota, 6-0, 25 min, 8 ppg-3 reb-4 ast-40%))

Playoffs

Play-Ins: Memphis defeats San Antonio, Golden State defeats Sacramento, Golden State defeats San Antonio. Memphis is #7, Golden State is #8.

Playoffs: 1^st Round: Oklahoma City 4 Golden State 1; Denver 4 Memphis 1; Houston 4 Minnesota 3; L.A. Lakers 4 L.A. Clippers 2

Quarter-Finals: Oklahoma City 4 Los Angeles Lakers 2; Denver 4 Houston 2

Semi-Finals: Oklahoma City 4 Denver 2

Finals: Oklahoma City 4 New York Knicks 2