NCAA bid is there for the Gopher women to take it

Despite a pair of tough losses out on the west coast this weekend, the Minnesota Gopher women remain very strongly in the race for their 1st NCAA tournament bid since 2018. Three more or less current bracketology predictions show the Big 10 getting 12 or 13 NCAA bids, and the 10th place Gophers (in the Big 10) getting a bid, and a #8, a #10 or a #11 seed. The one bracket that shows a specific opponent shows the #9 seeded Gophers getting #8 Louisville in the 1st round of the Spokane regional.

But that, of course, is putting the cart before the horse. There’s a lot of work for the Gophers to do to make this a reality. The Gophers may well be favored in 5 of their remaining 7 Big 10 games, but favored status is hardly the same thing as a win. And, in fact, it’s also possible that the Gophers may not be favored in any of their next 4 games.

• Next up is the very scary matchup with the sky-high Iowa Hawkeyes this coming Thursday. Thank goodness the game is here in the Barn and not down among the corn rows of Iowa. 11 days ago, the Hawkeyes were struggling along at 2-6 in the Big 10. They literally turned their season around with an 85-61 thrashing of the Washington Huskies in Seattle, shooting 71% and 69% on 3s. They then won at Northwestern, no big surprise except that the Hawks just eaked it out 85-80 (but, of course, the Gophers just eaked one out in Evanston, too). Then yesterday, as you probably know, Iowa pulled a blockbuster upset of the previously unbeaten (in the Big 10) and #4 rated USC Trojan 76-69. It was a tremendous ballgame. Iowa led 18-4 at the quarter, but trailed 29-28 at the half.

JuJu Watkins led USC with a line of 27-5-3-3, though she needed 22 shots to score 27 points. Lucy Olson led Iowa with 28-4-4-3 on just 18 shots. In the 4th quarter it was Olson who looked like the player of the year with 15 points on 5-of-7 shooting, while Watkins scored 4 on 2-of-5 with 2 turnovers. During Iowa’s 5-game losing streak, Olson scored 12 ppg on 34% shooting. In the current 3-game win streak she is scoring 21 ppg on 60% shooting. The Gophers very much need the 34% Olson to show up on Thursday.

A win here would put the Gophers back ahead of the Hawks in the seeding wars and establish the Gophers as a favorite against Indiana, again at home, next Sunday. A loss to Iowa might relegate the to underdog status against Indiana, and a loss to Indiana might relegate them to underdog status against a couple of other opponents. It’s a slippery slope.

• After a 3-game losing streak of their own, Indiana will come into the Barn hot, with a road win at Washington, then a solid 75-60 win over the Nebraska team that, you’ll recall, manhandled the Gophers earlier. Indiana dominated the turnover game against Nebraska 17-8. Indiana will almost surely beat Rutgers at home Thursday, and so they’ll come to town on a 3-game high. Once again, a Gopher win helps coach P’s team leapfrog another NCAA tournament contender.

• Home games against Oregon and Washington follow and, again, these are winnable games and they are games that the Gophers could lose. Oregon has a road win at Michigan State and no really bad losses. Washington has been up and down and now has 3 straight losses to Iowa and Indiana at home and at Ohio State. The Gophers face precisely the same test that the Huskies failed so badly, that is, consecutive home games against Iowa and Indiana.

• A critical road game at Purdue follows. The Boilermakers are just 1-10 this year but any Big 10 road game can be a harrowing experience. Just look at Northwestern.

• The Gophers then travel to Ohio State (20-1, #8) and later to Michigan State (18-4, #16).

With all of that, here’s my take on the Big 10 as of March 1. After this, of course, comes the Big 10 tournament and then the NCAA seeds.

1. UCLA 9-0 now, 8-1 the rest of the way, 17-1

2. USC 9-1, 7-1, 16-2

3. Ohio State 9-1, 5-3, 14-4

4. Maryland 7-4, 6-1, 13-5

5. Michigan State 8-3, 4-3, 12-6

6. Illinois 7-4, 5-2, 12-6

7. Nebraska 7-4, 5-2, 12-6

8. Minnesota 6-5, 5-2, 11-7. As you might gather from the above, 5-2 is aggressive. If so, they’d be 23-7 overall and a shoo-in to the NCAA tournament. On paper, it is within reach, but the games are not determined on paper.

9. Oregon 7-4, 4-3, 11-7. If so, they’ll be 20-9 overall and they’re in.

10. Michigan 6-5, 3-4, 9-9. If so, they’ll be 18-11 and they’ll be in.

11. Indiana 6-4, 3-5, 9-9. If so they’ll be 17-12 overall and a Big 10 tournament win should get them in the NCAA. A 1st round Big 10 tournament loss leaves them on the bubble.

12. Iowa 5-6, 2-5, 7-11. If so they’ll be 17-12 overall and a Big 10 tournament win should get them in the NCAA. A 1st round Big 10 tournament loss leaves them on the bubble.

13. Washington 4-6, 1-7, 5-13. The 3 bracketologies have 12 or 13 Big 10 teams advancing to the NCAA tournament. If Washington closes at 1-7, they’ll drop out.

14. Wisconsin 2-9, 1-6, 3-15

15. Penn State 1-10, 3-4, 4-14

16. Rutgers 1-10, 3-4, 4-14

17. Purdue 1-10, 1-6, 2-16

18. Northwestern 0-9, 1-8, 1-17

But, wait! What are the odds that this will really happen? I mean for the Gophers. 5-2 down the stretch?

Yeah, on paper they can go 5-2. But that’s on paper. As noted Iowa and Indiana will both come into the Barn hot. The Gophers have of course played great ball so far, especially in light of the injuries to Mara Braun and Taylor Woodson. I wouldn’t have given them much of a chance to be 18-5 after those 2 went down. But, here they are. But there’s plenty of concerns.

One is of course depth. The Gophers starters are averaging about 33 minutes per game during the recent 1-3 “skid.” I put “skid” in quotes because you knew the Gophers were not going to win in California. They played well. They just lost to 2 much better teams. As the announcers kept saying, UCLA has 9 McDonald’s all-Americans. Their starters averaged 24 minutes. Their bench outscored our bench 17-7. They ground the Gophers down and won the 4th quarter 28-15.

9 of the Gophers 11 Big 10 games have been won or lost with big streaks. They fell behind Nebraska 27-11 and lost by 19. They lost the 1st quarter to USC 25-15 and the 4th to UCLA. But, they won the 1st half 44-18 against Penn State; they won the 1st quarter 23-4 against and in their 2nd game the 2nd half 43-22 against Wisconsin; they beat Illinois and Northwestern in the 4th quarter 28-13 and 29-12. Gotta get a run, and gotta avoid getting run down and run over in the 4th. If they’re going to get a big run against Iowa and/or Indiana in the Barn, the 1st quarter would be a good time to do it.

So note that the Gophers bench is in fact getting shorter. During the past 4 games, Annika Stewart’s minutes have dwindled from 16 per game to 9, and her scoring from 10 ppg to 6. Alexia Rose, Niamaya Holloway and McKenna Johnson have played about 24 minutes combined but 15 of those minutes are Rose’s and she (over these past 4 games) is averaging 0.5 ppg on 25% shooting. I would hate to see the season come down to the 4th quarter of that final game at Michigan State. The Gophers could be exhausted at that point.

But, coach P has shown herself to be pretty adept in the category of duck tape and baling wire, so we will see what the next month brings for the Gopher women. The 1st NCAA tournament bid in 7 years is within reach but Iowa and Indiana and several others remain poised to snatch it away.

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