Like the NSIC men, the women also appear to feature a “Big 3” of bona fide championship contenders. Of course, one of them is already a champion–the regular season champion, that is, and that of course is Concordia St. Paul with a record of 10-2, 26-2 and a #11 national ranking.
The other contenders are 2nd place Southwest State (19-3, 25-3, #17) and defending national champion and 3rd place (NSIC) Minnesota State (Mankato) (18-4, 22-6, #25).
All 3 plus Northern State (SD) get 1st round byes, and the bottom 3 of Winona, Bemidji and Augustana are done. For the middle 8, the playoffs begin tomorrow (Wednesday, February 27) at the high seed. That means:
• UM Crookston (7-15, 9-19) at Sioux Falls (12-10, 16-13)
• UMD (8-14, 10-17) at Mary (12-10, 15-11)
• Wayne State (8-14, 11-15) at Moorhead (11-11, 13-15)
• Minot (9-13, 10-19) at St. Cloud (11-11, 14-13)
For the sake of brevity, I’m just gonna say that each of the high seeds, playing at home, is gonna advance, though I will also say that UMD and Wayne State will be competitive. Crookston and Minot, not so much, though it would be a shame not to see Crookston’s mighty mite, the 5-1 Emma Miller and her league-leading 23 ppg average, in the tournament proper beginning Saturday, March 1 at the Denny in Sioux Falls.
Quarter-Finals Saturday March 1
#1 Concordia-St. Paul vs. #8 St. Cloud, 11 a.m. CSP was picked #3 by the coaches but just steamrolled people by an average margin of 16. 5-3 Lydia Haack leads the way with 17 ppg and a fast-paced, risk-reward style of play. It is shocking to see Julia Bengtson, who at Becker was the ultimate wild-and-crazy, always doing the unexpected, risk-reward guard, ceding that role to Haack and playing herself the calm, composed, almost-unnoticed, efficient girl Friday to Haack. But, it works. Lindsey Becher is the league’s best post with 13 ppg, 8 boards and 3 blocks. CSP is not gonna lose to St. Cloud (or Minot, if it came to that).
#2 Southwest State vs. #7 Moorhead, 1:30 pm. Southwest features the pre-season player of the year in point guard Bri Stolzman, who has done very little to suggest relinquishing her POY status with a line of 21-6-4-2 and 54% shooting. Audrey Swanson (15 ppg-9 reb, 51%) and Natalie Nielsen (11-7, 60%) are a handful inside. The Mustangs are the league’s best shooting team, and they are not gonna lose to Moorhead or Wayne.
Quarter-Finals Sunday March 2
#4 Northern vs. #5 Sioux Falls, 11 am. Hey, this blog is about Minnesota basketball! But I’ll say this: This is a toss-up especially given that the lower seed is playing in their hometown. Northern is a well-balanced team, while the Sioux are mostly Kami Wadsworth.
#3 Minnesota State (Mankato) vs. Mary, 1:30 p.m. The defending national champs were the pre-season pick but they faltered after winning 13 straight and starting 13-0 in the conference. They lost consecutive games at Northern 93-82 and CSP 64-56. In the former, their usually solid defense took a vacation, giving up 80 points in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters and 21-of-35 shooting (60%) in the 2nd and 3rd. Then in the latter it was the offense that went south as the Mavs shot 12-of-54 (22%) over the last 3 periods, Then, last week at Moorhead, it was again a case of the shooting blues that did them in. They lost the 3rd quarter 24-9 as they shot just 20%, and lost the game 74-69.
I think coach Emilee Thiesse will keep their defense on track but the shooting woes are harder to prevent or avoid. Mankato will have to avoid them if they’re gong to win more than just this one game.
Semi-Finals Monday
Concordia St. Paul vs. Northern or Sioux Falls, 11 a.m. CSP has too many weapons to lose this game, and they don’t beat themselves.
Southwest State vs. Mankato State, 1:30. Ok, this one is hard to call. Let’s say Mankato plays up to their ability and avoids any shooting woes. Well, even then Southwest is the best shooting team in the NSIC. And, their bigs are every bit as good as Mankato’s and probably better. So for Mankato it comes down to the perimeter–that is, guards Destinee Bursch and Elizabeth Gadient and wings Natalie Bremer and Hannah Herzig. That’s a fearsome foursome, to be sure. Southwest counters with Stolzman–again, possibly the POY unless it’s Bremer or Emma Miller–and Peyton Blandin. Not a fearsome foursome, just a fearsome twosome. Mankato leads the NSIC in turnover margin at 27-17. Yes, they force 27 turnovers per game. Southwest breaks even at 14. If Mankato gets 10 extra possessions, they’re going to win.
But, Southwest counters as the top rebounding team with 43 per game and an 8-board margin. Mankato is just behind with 42 rebounds and a margin of 5. So, let’s say Mankato gets 5 extra possessions. Well, then, if I have to pick, I’ll pick Southwest.
Finals Monday
Concordia St. Paul vs. Southwest State. Have I mentioned that Southwest is the best shooting team in the league? Well, they are. Mankato is #2, Concordia just #6. Southwest is the top rebounding team, CSP is #3. CSP is #2 in turnover margin, but Southwest is not too shabby at #3. And, yet, Southwest lost to CSP 72-58, at home no less, though that was a long time ago, back on December 7.
Nielsen and Swanson will make life difficult for Lindsey Becher inside, but Lydia Haack will turn Bri Stolzman over now and then. So, in the end, Southwest will shoot it a little bit better and they’ll win the game and the title, oh, about 72-70. The really good news is that both teams will get bids to the NCAA D2 tournament, and so will Mankato.
Top Individuals
C- Lindsey Becher, CSP 13-8-3 blocks, 47%
PF- Audrey Swanson, Southwest 15-9, 51%
SF- Natalie Bremer, Mankato 20-5-2-3, 49%
PG- Bri Stolzman, Southwest 21-6-4-2, 54%
SG- Emma Miller, Crookston 23-5-3, 41%
6th Player–Destinee Bursch, Mankato 17-4-4-2, 53%