The WNBA playoffs and the Minnesota Lynx are now ready to move into the semi-final round. There were enough surprises in the 1st round for us to spend today, Saturday, recapping the 1st round as we await tomorrow’s (Sunday’s) semi-final games.
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
We’ll start with the other side of the bracket where the Indiana Fever, playing without Caitlin Clark as you of course know, will match up with the Las Vegas Aces, who have won 18 of their last 19 games. Both teams surprised us, Indiana by beating the Atlanta Dream at their own game–that is, in the paint and around the rim, with toughness and physicality–and doing it on the road, in the hostile environment of Atlanta’s Gateway Center in the 3rd and final game, the elimination game, of their series.
Atlanta led 56-49 at the half, and led by as many as 8 in the 3rd quarter and 6 in the 4th. They still led 85-80 with 2:32 remaining. But Indiana’s Aaliyah Boston bulled her way through Atlanta’s bigs, Brianna Jones, Naz Hillmon and Rhyne Howard, to score 6 4th quarter points and grab 4 rebounds. As a result, Indiana torched the Dream 7-0 down the stretch to win the game 87-85 and the series 2 games to 1. Kelsey Mitchell starred for Indiana with 24 points in that 3rd game and 70 points in the 3 games. Boston scored 29 points with 17 rebounds in the last 2 games, both of them elimination games for the Fever, both of them resulting in Indiana wins.
For the Dream, it was a clear case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They were one of the league’s toughest teams, its best rebounding team, and yet, down the stretch their toughness took a leave of absence. Indiana outrebounded Atlanta for the series, 103-102, and Atlanta had more turnovers, 40-34. Atlanta managed to outshoot Indiana 42% to 40. But, in the finale, the Fever also benefited from that wierd WNBA thing wherein, in big games, one team gets to shoot a ton of FT and the other team does not. In game 3, Indiana made 17-of-24 FT while Atlanta made 5-of-11. Whether this is a reflection of Indiana’s more aggressive play or of the ineptitude of the WNBA’s striped shirts, well, that’s your call.
As already stated, the Fever will draw the Las Vegas Aces, and another win for the Fever would seem to be vastly more unlikely than the first (playoff win). The Aces, after all, have now won 18 of 19 games, and they’re the #2 seed versus Indiana’s #6. But the #7 seeded Seattle Storm exposed the Aces in their series just like Indiana exposed Atlanta. Except that Vegas is supposed to be better than Atlanta, and Indiana better than Seattle. So the outcome of the Vegas-Seattle series was almost a vastly larger surprise even than Indiana’s win.
Vegas won game one 102-77. One has to ask, did they then become complacent? Because they lost game 2 at Seattle 86-83–and, like Atlanta, coughing up a seemingly safe 2nd half lead to do so. And, in fact, they lost that game despite a 29-12 advantage in FT. Even with all of that help, Vegas could not hold a 69-61 lead at the end of the 3rd quarter.
And, then, in game 3, they barely survived 74-73, again coughing up a 58-52 and 66-61 4th quarter leads on their home court. Aja Wilson was of course a tower of strength, scoring 29, 21 and 38 points in the 3 games while adding 26 rebounds and 11 assists, while shooting 31-of-56 from the field. Jackie Young added 57 points on 20-of-38 shooting.
In game 3, Wilson scored to put Vegas ahead 58-52 in the 4th quarter. Seattle answered with 5 straight points but Wilson answered with a 2 + 1 to make it 61-57. Chelsea Gray and Wilson scored to make it 65-61 at the 5 minute mark. Young scored 3 points, but Seattle tied it up at 68 at 1:52. Wilson scored 2 to make it 70-68 at 1:33, but Diggins hit a 3 for Seattle, and the Storm was ahead 71-70 at 1:15. Wilson scored but Wheeler answered for Seattle, and the Storm still led 73-72 at 19 seconds. With 12 seconds remaining, Wilson missed a layup, but Young was there to put it back in the basket for the win, 75-74. If Seattle had been able to corral that defensive rebound, the recently 17-1 Aces would have been out. At least the FT were more or less even–18 for Seattle, 17 for Vegas–but across the 3 games the Aces shot 67, Seattle 41. Ouch.
The marquee matchup here is of course Aja Wilson vs. Aaliyah Boston: Wilson’s numbers are 6-4, 22 ppg-10 reb-3 ast-2 stl, 48%, Boston’s are 6-5, 15 ppg-8 reb-4 ast, 55%. On the other hand, I’m not sure the series won’t be decided by Jackie Young and Kelsey Mitchell. Young is a 6-foot Vegas guard whose numbers are 17 ppg-4 reb-5 ast, 46%. Mitchell is a 5-8 Indiana guard with 20 ppg-2 reb-3 ast and also 46% shooting. As a team, Vegas actually got outshot during the regular season, 42% to 44, but they outshot Seattle by a life-saving margin of 49% to 43. Indiana got outshot 42-40% by the Dream. If Vegas shoots 49% again and Indiana shoots 40, this will be no contest.
I had picked Vegas to beat Atlanta in this series. Now, Vegas has been somewhat exposed. Indiana will not be winless in this series, and Vegas will come out of it with more than a few bumps and bruises. Still, I like Vegas 3 games to one.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
I had picked the Liberty to win their series with the Phoenix Mercury, but at least I was right about it going 3 games. And I was right about the officials giving the Liberty and Breanna Stewart a big advantage at the FT line–the Libs shot 51 FT in the last 2 games, Phoenix 38. Stewart shot 15 FT in game 3 alone. So, for the Lynx, it is a relief that we won’t have to go up against Stewart and the striped shirts, too.
Phoenix shot 39% for this series, the Libs just 35% and, frankly, the defense in this series was nothing compared to Atlanta and Indiana. Phoenix shot a more respectable 43% for the season, however. Phoenix outrebounded the Libs 49-33 in game 3, and turned the ball over just 11 times per game in the series, but the fact is they got outrebounded for the season, They did turn the ball over twice per game less than their opponents did–again, this is in the regular season. Alyssa Thomas is of course their superstar, their triple-double machine. She scored 20 points with 11 rebounds and 11 assists in game 3, though she averaged just 18-8-9 for the 3 games and shot just 7-of-18 in game 3. Along with Thomas, the Gambian-German post, 6-4 Satou Sabally, has, like Aaliyah Boston, become something of a rock for the Mercury. She scored 23 points in game 3 and 48 points in the 3 games while grabbing 27 rebounds. Wing Kahleah Cooper is a reliable double figure scorer.
The bottom line is that while the Mercury got outshot for the season, down the stretch against the Libs, their offense was reasonably efficient. They made 7-of-12 shots in the 4th quarter with just 2 turnovers. Their defense is not one of the league’s best, but it is big with 6-4 Satou Sabally, Natasha Mack and DeWanna Bonner. The Lynx are of course used to going up against teams that are bigger than they are. But unlike the Atlanta Dream, the Mercury refused to beat themselves at crunch time against the Libs.
That brings us finally to the Minnesota Lynx. Like every other series, this one had its surprise, well, or it’s near-surprise. Like the Aces, the Lynx won their 1st game with ease, 101-72. But like the Aces, we let the 2nd game get pretty close. In fact, the only way it could have been closer was with an overtime or two. The Lynx prevailed just 75-74 as you will recall. On the other hand, the way they did it was pretty impressive. Golden State led the Lynx 27-19, 41-28 and 63-49 after each of the 1st 3 quarters. The Lynx won the 4th quarter by a dominating 26-11 to win the game.
Like Phoenix in their game 3, the Lynx were remarkably efficient down the stretch of their game 2, making 11-of-15 shots in the 4th quarter. Kayla McBride scored 6 4th quarter points, Napheesa Collier 5 with 2 assists. And DiJonai Carrington returned from her shoulder injury to provide some of her instant offense, hitting a pair of 3s in the 4th quarter. So it was a little worrisome that the Lynx made such hard work of it, and it is troublesome that they fell behind early in both games–trailing 28-21 after one in game one, and trailing 27-19 after one in game 2. They rallied immediately in the 2nd quarter of game one, and outscored the Valyries 79-44 after that. In game 2, they didn’t rally til the 4th quarter. I don’t think we want to see that against the Mercury or much less against the Aces or Fever. But the Lynx won the shooting, rebounding and turnover contests in both games, and that ain’t bad.
Here are the Lynx-Mercury matchups.
| Position | Lynx | Mercury |
| Center | Alana Smith 6-4 10 ppg-5 reb-3 ast, 45% Co-Defensive PoY | Natasha Mack 6-4 4 ppg-5 reb, 57% |
| Power Forward | Bridget Carleton 6-2 7-4-2, 40% Jessica Shepard 6-4 7-7-2, 61% | Satou Sabally 6-4 17-7-2, 40% DeWanna Bonner 6-4 10-4, 41% |
| Small Forward | Napheesa Collier 6-1 23-7-3, 45% | Alyssa Thomas 6-2 16-9-9, 54% |
| Point Guard | Courtney Williams 5-8 14-5-6, 43 Natisha Heideman 5-7 8-2-3, 48% | Monique Akoa-Makani 5-11 8-2-3, 43% Sami Whitcomb 5-11 9-3-2, 39% |
| Shooting Guard | Kayla McBride 5-11 15-2-3, 43% DiJonai Carrington 5-11 13-4-2-2, 62% | Kehleah Copper 6-1 15-3-2, 43% Kathryn Westbeld 6-3 6-3, 35% |
Phoenix starts Natasha Mack in the post, but most of the inside minutes go to Sabally, Bonner and even Kahleah Copper. Phoenix has a substantial advantage in offensive firepower on the front line, though the Lynx counter with the league’s best defense. Collier and Thomas are pretty even at the 3-spot, both of them contending with Aja Wilson for MVP honors. Whatever advantage Phoenix has up front–and one could of course regard the 2 teams as essentially equal up front, but if one wanted to give Phoenix an advantage up front–the point is that the Lynx have a significantly larger advantage at the guards, especially now that Carrington is back from her shoulder injury. Our 4 guards shoot 49%, Phoenix’ shoot 40%. The Mercury is very big at the guards, averaging better than 6 feet, while the Lynx run 5-9-and-a-half. But the Lynx also has a big advantage in quickness, especially in the person of Courtney Williams.
So I am going to pick the Lynx to advance to the WNBA finals yet again by a margin of 3 games to one over the Phoenix Mercury, and I’m going to designate Courtney Williams as the series MVP.