The Minnesota Gopher men open the Big 10 season this Wednesday against Michigan State at the Barn. By Saturday, 17 of the 18 Big 10 teams will have at least one game under their belt, except for the Indiana Hoosiers, who only open their conference season a week from today (Monday night Dec. 9) in Bloomington against the Gophers. I first handicapped the Big 10 men 6 weeks ago, which I said was too early, especially in light of the uncertainties surrounding the transfer portal and the arrival of 4 west coast teams as new members of the Big 10. Despite all of that my, my earlier preview seems to be holding up OK, or maybe that’s just an indication of my stubborn refusal to change my mind even in the face of evidence that maybe I should.
We’ll start with the hometown Minnesota Gophers. I haven’t changed my mind about the Gophers. They’re gonna struggle. But maybe they’re going to struggle even more than I thought. I had them 15th. Now, I’m sorry, I hate it, but they’re 18th, especially if Mike Mitchell doesn’t come back at full strength, and SOON! The Gophers have one of the top 5 players in the conference in Dawson Garcia, but cumulatively they’re 17th in FG shooting (43 percent, only Washington is worse), and they shoot a woeful 61% from the FT line. Aside from Garcia, the 2 guys who get to the FT line the most are Parker Fox and Trey Edmonds, and they shoot 42 and 37% from the line. 3 other guys shoot 50% or worse. It’s a scandal. They’ve also been outshot from 3-point range 29 to 31%, and that is against mostly mid-major opposition. Lu’Cye Patterson and Brennan Rigsby shoot 21 and 24% on 3s, respectively. If that kind of odd-numbered shot shooting (1s and 3s) continues, it will be a truly dreadful season.
1. Purdue Boilermakers (7-1, was #5). I had Purdue #5 so I’m not sure I changed my mind about them as much as about the teams I had ahead of them. After Zack Edey, Purdue is now a finesse team led by guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith, though Trey Kaufmann-Renn does give them some inside presence. They too have 2 wins against rated teams, but then there’s that 18 point loss to Marquette while Maryland lost to Marquette by just 4. But Purdue’s loss was in Milwaukee, Maryland’s win at College Park. They’re shooting 50%.
2. Wisconsin Badgers (8-0, was #9). I hate this as much as I hate the Gophers 18th but right now Wisconsin is the best team in the Big 10 and John Tonje is the best player. Tonje is a 6-5 graduate guard who played for Missouri and Colorado State. In 4 years at CSU, he scored 9 ppg, including 15 in year 4. He was not one of the top 20 most-heralded transfers in the conference, as far as I can tell. Wisconsin joins only Oregon and Purdue in having 2 wins over rated teams. I had the Badgers #9 in my earlier preview so, yeah, I guess I have changed my mind about them. They’re shooting a so-so 47%, however.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-2), was #3). Beat Texas but then faltered 3 times against Cincinnati, Texas A&M (who lost to Oregon) and Pitt (who lost to Wisconsin). Bruce Thornton is still one of the Big 10’s top guards, however. And they shoot a 2nd best 51%.
4. Maryland Terrapins (7-1, was #11). Maryland features 4 double figure scorers led by 6-10 freshman Derik Queen along with veterans Julian Reese and Rodney Rice. They’re the kind of veteran help that Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are playing without. They shoot 50%.
5. UCLA Bruins (6-1, was #1). UCLA isn’t gelling yet, at least not in a loss to New Mexico. They’re shooting a so-so 48%. Oregon State transfer post Tyler Bilodeau leads with 14 ppg. In other words, a true leader on the perimeter has not emerged.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (5-2, was #2). The Hoosiers still have some of the Big 10’s best talent but coach Mike Woodson isn’t getting much out of it yet. A loss to Gonzaga is one thing, a loss to Louisville is another. Still Mgbako, Reneau and Ballo are are good a 1-2-3 punch as there is, along with Maryland’s big 3. They’re shooting 48%.
7. Oregon Ducks (8-0, was #6). The Ducks remain somewhat unknown, except that they’re the 3rd Big 10 team with 2 signature wins already. They feature a balanced scoring attack and they don’t shoot it all that well (45%, 15th best in the conference so far).
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1, was #4). Beat Creighton. Brice Williams is one of the Big 10’s top guards (18 ppg). But they only shoot 46%.
9. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1, was #16). Owen Freeman and Payton Sandfort are a scary 1-2 punch. They shoot 50%. So far the supporting cast is a lot better than I expected.
10. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1, was #7). Freshman Will Riley looks like a keeper but they shoot just 46% as a team.
11. Northwestern (6-2, was #9). Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli are another great 1-2 punch. But, the Wildcats shoot just 44%.
12. Michigan Wolverines (6-1, was #13). If this were football I would be compelled to say something about cheating and bad sportsmanship. But this is hoops so I won’t mention it. Their talent doesn’t look great, but they’re shooting 50% and they beat Xavier.
13. Michigan State Spartans (6-2, was #12). Similar to Michigan in that there’s no obvious star but they beat North Carolina. Shooting 47%.
14. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1, was #18). OK, I’ve changed my mind about Penn State. I knew that Ace Baldwin could play (15 ppg-8 asts per game, best in the Big 10), but he’s got 3 teammates also scoring in double figures. And they shoot 52% as a team.
15. Southern California Trojans (5-3, was #8). Their total revamp isn’t taking yet though they beat Gonzaga. They do have 4 players scoring in double figures, and they’re shooting 47%.
16. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-3, was #17). OK, freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are everything they were cracked up to be, scoring a conference leading 43 ppg between the 2 of them. But the team around them is not gelling, as in a loss to Kennesaw State.
17. Washington Huskies (6-1, was #14). Great Osobor may be the best transfer in the conference, maybe even including John Tonje but his team is shooting a Big 10 worst 42%.
18. Minnesota Gophers.
Big 10 Tournament
#10 Illinois defeats #15 USC
#14 Penn State upsets #11 Northwestern
#13 Michigan State beats #12 Michigan
#5 UCLA beats #13 Michigan State
#6 Indiana beats #14 Penn State
#10 Illinois surprises #7 Oregon
#8 Nebraska beats #9 Iowa
#1 Purdue beats #8 Nebraska
#2 Wisconsin beats #10 Illinois
#6 Indiana beats #3 Ohio State
#5 UCLA beats #4 Maryland
#5 UCLA beats #1 Purdue
#2 Wisconsin beats #6 Indiana
#5 UCLA beats #2 Wisconsin
Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament
#2 seed–Purdue and Wisconsin
#3–UCLA
#4–Ohio State
#5–Indiana and Maryland
#7–Nebraska
#8–Illinois
#9–Oregon
#10–Iowa
All-Conference
C- Owen Freeman, Iowa
PF- Dawson Garcia, Minnesota
SF- Dylan Harper, Rutgers
PG- Brice Williams, Nebraska
SG- Ace Bailey. Rutgers
2nd Team
C- Julian Reese, Maryland
PF- Brook Barnhizer, Northwestern
SF- Kobe Johnson, UCLA
PG-Braden Smith, Purdue
SG- John Tonje, Wisconsin
3rd Team
C-Omar Ballo, Indiana
PF- Malik Reneau, Indiana
SF- Payton Sandfort, Iowa
PG- Bruce Thornton, Ohio State
SG- Ace Baldwin, Penn State