The 2023-2024 basketball season continues in Minnesota and in New York. Everywhere else it’s over. But while the Minnesota Lynx pursue a 5th (and, well, you and I know that it would really be their 6th) WNBA title, the Minnesota Timberwolves open the 2024-2025 season tonight–that is, Friday, October 11–at home against the Philadephia 76ers. What better time to break down the Wolves prospects for 2025?
I don’t need to remind you that the Wolves shocked the world–and, being honest, they shocked you and they shocked me–by leading the western conference most of the way last year, then finishing 3rd with 56 wins, and winning 2 playoff series before falling to the Dallas Mavs in the conference finals. And, mostly, they shocked everybody by becoming one of if not the best defensive team in the NBA.
Of course, the Wolves had already shocked the world by trading ten players and draft picks for Rudy Gobert in July 2022. It took a year for that trade to pay off, but pay off it did last season. And, now, the Wolves have shocked the world again by trading long-time center and star Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. 27% of NBA GMs called it the biggest surprise trade of the off-season, Towns was named the #2 in impact among players who have changed teams, and the Knicks were rated #3 in making the best off-season moves. There were no such accolades for the Wolves in the matter.
The GMs picked the Wolves for 2nd in the west, however; though, in truth, the Wolves did not recieve a single first-place vote. Oklahoma City got 80% of those, and Dallas, Denver and Phoenix got firsts. But the Wolves dominated the 2nd and 3rd place votes to finish 2nd overall.
Ant Edwards has moved up to the #1-rated shooting guard in the NBA, edging last year’s leader Devin Booker 33 to 23%. (Last year Booker got 63% of those votes.) Coach Chris Finch got a few votes for coach of the year, and he is the only coach to rank in the top 3 both in “defensive schemes” and “offensive schemes.” He got 20% of the votes (tied for #2) for his defenses, and 13% of the votes (#3) for his offenses. 57% said that the Boston Celtics play the best D overall. The Wolves were 2nd at 23%. Gobert was rated the #2 defender. DiVincenzo got votes as the most underrated off-season acquisition.
So, from last year’s successful rotation, the Wolves have lost Towns and Kyle Anderson. They have added obvious rotation players Randle and DiVincenzo, plus potential rotation players Joe Ingles and Keita Bates-Diop, plus potential rotation rookies Terrence Shannon and Rob Dillingham, whole holdover Leonard Miller would seem to have the potential to become a regular performer.
In short, the guys the Wolves will rely on are:
Rudy Gobert, center 14 pts-13 reb-2 blks, shot 66% a year ago. The game’s #2 rim protector after Victor Wembanyana
Naz Reid, center and power forward 13.5 pts-5 reb, shot 48%. A candidate for best 6th man.
Julius Randle, power forward avg. 24-9-5 last year and shot 54%. He’s a bit undersized and he had back problems last year but you would think that he checked out OK. He’s a bully finisher, basically.
Jayden McDaniels, small forward, avg 10-3 and shot 49% last year. Rated as one of the league’s best defender and specifically perimeter defender. People keep waiting for him to explode on offense, though I don’t think it’s going to happen, at least not this year. He expends so much energy on defense that coach Finch has said that he really doesn’t expect him even to rebound a whole lot.
Mike Conley, point guard; he’s 37 years young and you wonder when he’ll start to decline a little bit. Avg 11-3-6 last year. Does a great job of managing the ball and the game. I’m not sure he isn’t the Wolves MVP.
Anthony Edwards. Most people of course would pick Ant as the Wolves’ MVP. I don’t think I really need to discuss Anthony too much here. Again, the GMs say he’s the best shooting guard in the game, and they would know.
Donte DiVincenzo. Some say he’s the reason (and not Randle) why the Wolves were willing to part with KAT. Donte avg. 13-5-3 last year and shot 48% overall and 40% from distance. Ant was asked about DiVincenzo the other day and he said that Donte will help him (Ant) with his long-range shooting. Opposing teams won’t be able to lay back in the gaps on Ant., he (Ant) said, because he (Ant) would cheerfully throw the ball to DiVincenzo and he’ll knock down the 3. Then, when they start edging over toward Donte, then, Ant said, “I can get downhill.” Sounds good to me.
So for all intents and purposes, DiVincenzo will replace Kyle Anderson in the rotation, and while you know that Kyle had some great strengths as a ball-handler and defender, DiVincenzo will give the Wolves a different look. Maybe a better one.
Beyond that Nickiell Alexander-Walker was the only other player to see significant action and he’s back pretty much in the same role, as the 8th man, who can fill in at 3 positions. Beyond that, the Wolves have vastly upgraded their #9-10-11-12 spots with veterans Keita Bates-Diop and Joe Ingles, and rookies Terrence Shannon and Rob Dillingham. Until the 2-for-1 Knicks deal, I was thinking that Nickiell would move up into Anderson’s role and Shannon would take on Nickiell’s former role. I’ve been surprised, however, that Shannon right now is shown as beiong quite lowly in the Wolves’ rotation even as everybody praises his energy, his athleticism, his explosiveness. They jury is out on Bates-Diop and Ingles, too. Bates is a small big man at 6-8 and, according to one scouting report, he’s not a single phase of the game in which he’s elite. Ingles, on the other hand, is a 6-7 perimeter dude who can handle it and shoot the 3. He’s not athletic but he’s a pain in the ass because of his unusual combination of size and skills.
By playoff time, well, Reid and Divincenzo will be #6 and #7. Shannon will be #8, Ingles #9 and Nickiell #10 in the rotation and, again, the #7 through 10 players will all be substantially better than a year ago.
What does it all add up to? Well, the GMs picked the Wolves at #2 in the west, but Dallas, Denver and Pheonix all got first-place votes and the Wolves did not. Still….
Prediction
1. Oklahoma City
2. Minnesota
3. Dallas
4. Denver
5. Phoenix
6. L.A. Lakers
7. Sacramento
8. New Orleans
9. San Antonio
10. Golden State
11. Memphis
12. L.A. Clippers
13. Utah
14. Houston
15. Portland
Last year, as you’ll recall, the top 3 in the west were all within one game of each other. This year the top 4 are all almost as evenly matched, and so it would surprise me if any of the top 4 finished #1 or finished #4. Well, except, I would be surprised if OKC fell the 4th. The Wolves could have a legitimately good season and still finish 4th. Anything lower would certainly be a disappointment. I think the win count will be a game or two below last year’s 56 because the west is just so gol-darned good. All of the top 10 except for Denver and Golden State could be better than last year.
On the floor the Wolves will look a little different. I mean, first and foremost, they’ll look more like a normal basketball team without the twin and sometimes triple towers. The defense will be mostly the same. They’ve replaced the weakest link among their starting 5 (on defense) with a new weakest link at the same position. Replacing Kyle Anderson’s defense will be a challenge. But, the defense will look a lot the same. The offense will look a little different with Randle attacking the rim a little more than any of the Wolves did last year.
The biggest key, of course, is staying healthy. Just ask the 2023 Wolves, when KAT missed about half the season and they never got it together. Ask the hapless Minnesota Twins whose 3 best players–Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Bryan Buxton–played about half the season, on average. So you worry a little bit about Randle’s back but, seriously, every knee and every ankle is a potential point of failure.
The second key is Donte DiVincenzo knocking down the 3 at his established 40% rate. And, then, Randle scoring 24 ppg at 54%. Then if Ant and McDaniels continue to improve, and if they can get Terrence Shannon integrated into the offense, well, the Wolves could be very good. But, remember, they could be better than 2024 and win fewer games. They’re gonna have to run a little faster just to keep up.