So it was little more than a week ago that we decided that we were bullish on the Minnesota Timberwolves, picking them to finish #4 in the west with a home-court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. Well, they promptly opened with an utterly listless and uninspired performance at the mediocre Toronto Raptors, losing 97-94. The offense appeared to be completely lost, and the Wolves spent the entire night jacking up lousy shots with Toronto defenders in their faces. They bounced back with a 106-90 win over the Miami Heat, playing without Jimmy Butler, then had another woeful performance at least in the 2nd half, losing to the Atlanta Hawks 127-113 after leading by 19 at the half.
So the predominant theme so far is the Timberwolves remarkable inconsistency, and that theme was on display big time last night as the Wolves shocked the unbeaten, defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets, and shocked the entire NBA world, and shocked their own fans with a 110-89 win. The only way to highlight anything other than the Wolves inconsistency so far would be to note that they’re 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. How, exactly, is that a surprise? Well, the Wolves have been a pretty good road team in recent years and, if anything, their downfall a year ago was a so-so record at home, especially against weak opponents at home. We’ll have a chance to test that theory Saturday night when the Jazz come to town.
So, in summary, I thought the Wolves would be 3-1 after a loss to Denver last night. Instead, they’re 2-2 with a win over the 3-1 Nuggets, but 2 losses against weaker opponents. The Denver win creates hope that the Wolves could be pretty good after all, but the rest of their season so far, well, not so much.
So, what else have we seen from the Wolves so far? Well, the offense has been a disappointment, scoring an average of 106 ppg, 23rd among 30 NBA teams after scoring more in the 115 range the past couple of years. Anthony Edwards is doing fine with 25 ppg on 44% shooting and 60% from 3-point range. Karl Towns, on the other hand, has struggled, scoring a career low 17 ppg (even as a rookie he scored 18 and otherwise has never been below 21). He’s shooting 37%, way below his career 52%, and 24% on 3s, well below his career 39%. Overall, the Wolves are shooting 45%, 18th in the league (that is, below average) though their 37% on 3s is 10th. On the other hand, the team that led the NBA is 3s 2 years ago (yes, that would be the Minnesota Timberwolves) are LAST in the NBA right now with 29 attempts per game. So with both Karl Towns and the 3 point shooting in the doldrums, it’s had to believe that the Wolves’ offense is going to be sufficient to win a lot of games. One or the other or both has got to get itself going.
Still, there are some pleasant surprises, like the DEFENSE! The Wolves are widely reputed to be a terrible defensive team, and it’s a reputation that has been well-earned at times. But, this year, other than the 2nd half against Atlanta, the D has been little short of stellar. They’re giving up 101 ppg, 2nd in the NBA, and their opponent’s FG% of 44% is the 8th best in the league. Last night the Wolves blocked just 5 shots but altered a bunch and held the Nuggets to 40% shooting. Nikola Jokic bullied his way to 25 points, but the Nuggets’ perimeter scoring star, Jamal Murray, scored a season-low 14 on just 5-of-16 shooting. Is this kind of defense by the Wolves sustainable? No, probably not. But after giving up something in the 115 range the past 2 seasons, 101 is a good start, and maybe they can cut opponent scoring to the 110 range. That takes a little bit of pressure off the offense.
The other surprise is that Naz Reid has quietly become the Wolves’ best player, and he’s one tough matchup for opposing teams as they go to their bench. So far, nobody’s got a bench big who can compete with Naz and when Naz plays against the opponent’s #1 big, he holds his own. Well, not against Jokic, maybe, but neither did Karl Towns or Rudy Gobert hold their own against Jokic either. It must be said, however, that NBA referees seem to have made it a project to protect Jokic and to screw the beejeezus out of Karl Towns. In the first quarter alone, Towns fouled Jokic’s elbow with his chest twice, while Jokic then raked Gobert on a layup attempt, but emerged from the quarter without a single foul call against him instead of the 3, at least, that he deserved. Towns, meanwhile was on the bench with 2. The announcers called it “bully ball” and that’s about right. He bullied Karl Towns and he has obviously bullied NBA referees into choking on their whistles rather than calling the 2-time MVP for his routine and incessant fouling of opposing bigs. But, I digress.
Reid finished last night with 16 points, which is now his average, on 53% shooting and 44% on 3-pointers.
The other huge surprise last night was that the Wolves got to the FT line 27 times. They came into the game last in the NBA with just 11 FT on 15 attempts. When Towns sits down, suddenly the referees seem to remember that they’re supposed to treat both teams somewhat more or less equally and, given Denver’s clutch-and-grab style of play, the Wolves justifiably ended up with a big edge in FTA. Is this a sustainable trend? Again, probably not. One game doesn’t make a trend. But it would sure help the cause if the Wolves stopped get hammered from the FT line.
So, there are some very positive trends but so far they only add up to 2-2 and a #9 seed if the playoffs started today. They would have to beat Sacramento and San Antone just to get to the real playoffs, and then they would draw the #1 seed. Not a recipe for success. Next up the home stand continues with the Jazz, the Celtics and the newly-tough New Orleans Pelicans. Anything less than 2 out of 3 will be trouble because a road trip then takes them to San Antone, Golden State twice, Phoenix and New Orleans, and winning more than 1 or 2 of those will be a big task. So, 4-4 over the next 8 games is about as good as one can expect, and so then 3 weeks from now the Wolves will still be a .500 team and a likely #8-9-10 seed.
So, yeah, my optimism is waning. A lot will have to happen for it to return. Karl Towns needs to get on track. The 3 point shooting needs to improve soon. The defense needs to continue to perform at a totally unexpected and unprecedented level, and over the next month it would be nice to get a 3 or 4 game cushion vs. 500. All of that seems like a lot to ask.