Timberwolves struggle for relevance

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to struggle for relevance as the NBA moved on to bigger and better things–Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, et al. Right now the Timberwolves are just 2.5 games behind the 5th place Lakers, while they are a full 4.5 games ahead of the 12th place Spurs. But, having traded practically an entire roster for Rudy Gobert, the Wolves have been one-upped and probably relegated to another decade of trailing the blue-blood Lakers and Spurs by vastly bigger and better trades.

The Lakers made themselves a powerful threat for an NBA title now, and longer term they replaced LeBron James with Luka Doncic, so the Lakers position as one of the NBA’s consistent superpowers and media darlings is cemented for another decade. San Antone, of course, has Victor Wembanyama, the 21-year-old 7-foot-3-inch superstar and, along with Luka Doncic, the future of the NBA, Now, they’ve paired him with star point guard De’Aaron Fox, and the Spurs also become a threat to do some damage in the upcoming playoffs. The Spurs are now 3 games out of the play-ins, and making it into the play-ins may be more of a challenge than winning in those play-ins against the Doncic-less Mavs and the Fox-less Kings and the hapless Timberwolves if they can get there.

Sometimes it seems that most of the front office talent in the NBA seems to be in the West, or maybe it’s just that that’s where most of the money is. In any event, it’s where the Timberwolves have tried unsuccessfully to navigate their way to success for more than 25 years. For much of that time, the Wolves’ braintrust was so terribly overmatched. But, now, honestly, the Wolves have competent management and, yet, they seem to be falling further and further behind the league’s best and most successful franchises.

Along with the recent trades is the Wolves own recent performance. A nice run of 5 straight wins got the Wolves up to 7th place at 27-21, with a 5-game homestand, mostly against teams with .500 or below records. A 10-game winning streak, or at least an 8 or 9 out of 10, seemed achievable. A 31-22 record would return them to relevance, at least in the short term. But, instead, injuries set in. Ant Edwards, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo all missed last Saturday’s game and the Wolves lost to the worst team in the NBA, the 7-41 Wizards, 105-103. Then, with Randle and DiVincenzo still out and Edwards not looking to be full strength, the Wolves lost to the .500 Sacramento Kings 116-114.

A roster long since depleted by the Gobert trade cannot compete without being able to put its best foot forward. A team that not that long ago had 3–count ’em, 3–overall #1 draft picks has dithered 2 of those 3 picks down to point guard Mike Conley, who is starting right now only due to DiVincenzo’s injury, and to Julius Randle, whom the team seems intent on getting rid of at the first opportunity. And, so, if #1 pick Ant Edwards is not available, the Wolves are not a playoff caliber team. How long is it going to be before Ant decides that he, too, ought to be playing in the brighter lights of L.A. or New York, New York?

The good news is that coach Chris Finch has been forced to play some of his woefully under-used bench. Rookie point guard Rob Dillingham, perhaps the only bench guy with a real future here in Minnesota, has over the past 9 games doubled his season average to 16 minutes per game. Jaylen Clark has played in 5 of 9 games for an average of 10 minutes. But, that’s just short strokes. I have no idea what it means longer term. Maybe Rob Dillingham is the 2nd coming of Alan Iverson. Short of that…?

If I could turn back the clock, would I not fire Bill Musselman? Would I not sign Joe Smith? Would I have drafted Stephen Curry rather than Jonny Flynn? Would I never have given the keys to the kingdom to David Kahn? Would I hang on to Karl Towns? Where did the Timberwolves go so wrong? But, wait, no. That’s the past. I already said that the Wolves now have a competent management and I meant that. But, the hole they’re in is deep after almost 30 years of digging, and an equal number of years of great management by the Lakers, the Spurs, the Golden State Warriors, et al.

So, what’s to be done?

• Well, first, let’s quit losing to losing teams. The Wolves are a woeful 6-5 against losing teams at home. And, as it happens, they’ve got exactly another 11 such games remaining. You should win 8 or 9 of those!

• They’re now 8-5 against losing teams on the road, but they’ve only got 4 more such games left. Win 3 out of 4?

• They’re now 7-7 against winning teams at home, and they’ve got just 6 of those games left. Win better than .500, which would mean 4-2.

• And they’re a respectable 6-5 against winning teams on the road, just the same as against losing teams at home. The Wolves have this habit of playing up or down to the opponent. But, for now, is more of that 6-5 possible?

So, the foregoing adds up to a closing record of 21-11 and a total record 48-34. That maybe moves you up to #6, evades the play-ins, and gets you the Houston Rockets rather than the Memphis Grizzlies. The Wolves are 1-1 vs. the Rockets (-5 points) and 0-2 against the Griz (-4 points). So, on the up-up-upside, the Wolves could still get to #6, and beat the Rockets and Grizzlies in the playoffs to get to the Western Division finals again, this time probably against Oklahoma City. That’s the upside.

The downside is losing to the Wiz at home. At that level, they’re looking more like an 11-21 finish and 38-44 and out of the playoffs. Ouch. That’s the thing with the Wolves. The possibilities are so widely varied. But, most likely is somewhere in between. A .500 finish that gets them to 43-39 (.524), a spot in the play-ins against the Mavs, Kings, Suns and/or Spurs. I don’t love those odds.

 

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