What’s wrong with the Timberwolves?

Everybody is asking, What’s wrong with the Timberwolves? It’s all over the internet and talk radio/podcasts, etc. So I don’t know if I have much to add. Mostly, I just want to pile on and say, yeah, there’s something wrong with the Timberwolves. Definitely something wrong. But what?

Just the Facts, Ma’am

The Wolves are scoring the same 113 ppg as a year ago. I mean, the same number. Not the same points. The composition is a lot different. The Wolves are shooting a lot more 3s. But scoring the same 113 points, so who cares? Well, because they’re not going to the rim, they’re getting to the FT even less than last year. But, still, 113 points, Who really cares?

At the individual level, there are some more notable changes. Anthony Edwards has flipped from 13 2-point attempts and 7 3’s last year, to 9 2’s and 12 3’s this year.In fact, much has been made of the fact that Ant made 50 3s in the Wolves 1st 9 games. It was the 3rd most 3s ever in the NBA through 9 games, exceeded only by Steph Curry. Of course, because he isn’t going to the rim, he also isn’t getting to the FT line. But his average is up from 26 to 28 and the Wolves are scoring 113.

Then, Mike Conley’s output has dropped from 11 ppg to 7. His shooting has dropped from 46% to 31%. Hs assists have dropped from 6 to 5. As a team, the Timberwolves assists have dropped just that one from 27 to 26, but the turnovers are up from 14 to 17.

Rudy Gobert’s numbers have dropped from 14 ppg and 13 rebounds last year, to 11 and 10 this year. Team rebounding remains about the same.

John Randle’s production is not dissimilar to KAT’s.

But, wait, then there’s this. Opponent points have increased from 106 to 110 because, basically, they’re making an extra 3. Otherwise, the numbers are fairly comparable. But while giving up 106 ppg gained the Wolves recognition as one of the NBA’s best defensive teams, and speifically, one of the best at chasing the 3-pointer.  Now, giving up 110 points, they’re still rated #10. But #10 ain’t #2 or #3.

So, Again, What’s Wrong With the Timberwolves

1. Well, yes, it’s the defense stupid. 110 points is more than 106. NBA teams win almost every night when they give up 106 points. The win more than the lose but they don’t win nearly as much when they give up 110. And last night of course the lowly Portland Blazers rained 3s on the Wolves. Randle for KAT and especially DiVincenzo for Kyle Anderson were both significant defensive downgrades. And, the Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley of 2025 vs. the Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley of 2024 also look like downgrades.

2. So, it must be aclnowledged that Mike Conley is particular is getting old at 37. Rudy Gobert may be entering a decline phase, too. Opponents are making just one extra 3, but at times the Wolves have sat Rudy Gobert down in favor of another perimeter defender. They never did that last year.

3. The Wolves are easy to defend at crunch time. You can’t triple team Ant all night long. But, you can triple team him at crunch time because Conley is shooting 31 percent and DeVincenzo 33 and Randle 38 on 3s. At crunch time, you triple Ant because nobody else is going to make a clutch 3.

4. Chemistry, The chemistry between KAT and Ant was teerrific. The Wolves’ chemistry now is not terrific. It’s funny how, when the trade was made–KAT for Randle and DeVincenzo–everybody said that the Knick won the trade. Then it became fashionable to say that the Wolves won the trade because they got 2-for-1. Now the smart guys are saying again that the Knicks won the trade, though the Wolves are 6-5 and the Knicks 5-5. Of course the 5-5 Knicks are #4 in the east, the 6-5 Wolves are #9 in the west.

But, while Randle’s production is comparable to KAT’s last year, he’s (Randle) much less of a 3-point threat, and so the spacing on the court is a lot different, too. So maybe that’s it rather than the intangible of chemistry.

So, I have this funny feeling that 4 answers is not one answer. In other words, wouldn’t it be nice to be able to say that “x” is what ails the Wolves, one single solitary thing. A scapegoat, if you will. Maybe that’s what we crave. Well, how about that good old standby, the Wolves’ front office? Here the argument would be that KAT was traded not for basketball reasons but for financial reasons. The Wolves, after all, had and still have one of the worst financial positions in the league. No salary space, no flexibility to make any moves. It has been said that you can’t evaluate the KAT-Randle trade until you know what the Wolves do with Randle when his contract runs out at the end of next year. For that matter, he has a player option next year and could opt for free agency next spring. So, in reality, he might come off the Wolves rolls as early as next year but, again, certainly by 2026. KAT was/is signed through 2028. So the Wolves obtained a little salary room in 2025 and (maybe) 2026 and a lot when Randle’s contract runs out in 2025 or 2026. When Randle joined the Wolves, he said he would welcome a contract extension. Well, that ain’t gonna happen.

So as soon as 2026-2027 the Wolves depth chart could be as follows. Note that they have no 1st round draft pick until 2028.

C-Naz Reid and Luka Garza

PF- Jaden McDaniels and Leonard Miller

SF- Josh Minott and Nickiell Alexaner-Walker

PG- Dante DeVincenzo and Rob Dillingham

SG- Ant Edwards and Terrence Shannon

Everyone who thinks this looks like a playoff team, please stand up. I didn’t think so.

If this happened, Ant also would be the only remnant of those 3 overall #1 picks the Wolves got in 2014, 2015 and 2020. Andrew Wiggins’ legacy ends with Mike Conley. KAT’s legacy ends with Julius Randle. And then there was one. The good news is that with this roster, the Wolves would probably have the cap space to bring in a big-time free agent, if one wanted to spend his winters in Minnesota.

Still, my main point is that if the Randle trade wasn’t made for basketball reasons–that is, to make the Wolves better in the short term–then the fact is that the Wolves won’t get better in the short term. It could be that the Gobert era will consist of just one really good season. And, if the point was to save the owners some luxury tax money, well, yippie for them. But, if the point was to make the Wolves both better and more sustainable when Conley and Gobert are gone, then you younger fans will have to wait for the fruit of that strategy to blossom. Us old-timers may not live to taste such fruits.