The NBA opened up its 2023-2024 season last night with the defending champion Nuggets beating the always ballyhooed Lakers 119-107 and the new-look Phoenix Suns winning at the old-look Golden State Warriors 108-104. The Minnesota Timberwolves and much of the rest of the NBA tip things off tonight–the Wolves visiting the Toronto Raptors in a should-win and therefore something of a must-win game.
So, what are the odds of a Timberwolves breakthrough in year #35? Well, of course, the odds of a Timberwolves breakthrough have never been good. They’ve had 10 winning seasons out of 34, they’ve made the playoffs 11 times in those 34 tries, they lost well over 500 more games than they’ve won, and they’ve lost 2 out of every 3 playoff games (21-42) and 11 of 13 playoff series. In just one season out of those 34 have the Timberwolves ever won a playoff series. (They won 2 in 2004; they’re 0-for-10 in all of their other playoff appearances.)
And, yet, let’s note that the Wolves recently have had 3 overall #1 draft picks–Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, who through various permutations has now turned into Michael Conley. And, then, of course, pretty much the entire rest of the Wolves manpower was all traded for Rudy Gobert; well, except that Jaden McDaniels also remains. For the record, ESPN rates Edwards as the #13 player in the NBA, Towns #20, Gobert #64 and Conley #93. McDaniels is not top 100 but I think we can agree that he is a pretty good #5. So, on paper, the Wolves have an OK top 5. But, having given up a total of 10 players and/or draft picks for Gobert, you would think that their depth might be a little bit suspect and so it is.
Just for the record, the Lynx used to be as bad as the Wolves, but they parlayed a trio of #1 overall draft picks into Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsey Harding. Harding was traded for draft picks that included Renee Montgomery, and Montgomery was traded for Lindsay Whalen. So thos #1 picks turned into Augustus, Moore, Whalen and 4 WNBA championships. Is there a snowball’s chance that Edwards, Towns and Wiggins–>DeAngelo–> Conley could turn into at least one NBA playoff series win??? Wow, one would certainly hope so.
So, let’s give in to hope! Whaddya say? Let’s give in to hope for the Minnesota Timberwolves for the 2nd time in 35 years. What would that look like? A hopeful forecast would have the Wolves #2 in the Northwest Division behind the forementioned defending NBA champions and maybe as high as #4 a.nd a homecourt advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. No, really
NBA Western Division Prediction
Northwest Division
1. Denver Nuggets. So, standing in the way of crazy hope first of all is the fact that the Wolves are in the division with the defending NBA champion Nuggets. Last year they (the Nuggets) parlayed center Nikola Jokic and an otherwise youthful and energetic lineup into 53 regular season wins and a 16-4 playoff record. The consensus is that Jokic remains a near-MVP caliber player and he and that youthful and energetic lineup might in fact be better this year than last. Well, I’ll pencil them in for 2 more wins than last year (53 last year, 55 this year). Obviously, the real key for their legacy is can they put together another playoff run like last year? But, I’ll give ’em 55 wins for starters.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves were a disappointing 42-40 last year, after winning 46 the year before and trading for Rudy Gobert. But Towns missed all but 29 games, and so you’d have to say that the Twin Towers strategy didn’t get a fair shot. Worse than winning 42 games was that they ended up with the #8 seed in the West and so they go Denver in the 1st round. For about one day there last April, they worked their way up to the #5 playoff seed, but lost too many winnable games (defined as home games against teams with losing records) down the stretch, including the 1st play-in game at home in OT to the L.A. Lakers. A successful season is no longer defined just by making the playoffs. Now, after all the roster machinations, they’ve gotta get a winnable 1st round matchup to be called a success.
Still, they surprised the NBA blogosphere by standing pat this off-season. The pundits were so sure that they were going to move Gobert or Towns, Towns or Gobert, but they didn’t do that. Instead they moved reserves guard Jaylen Nowell and forward Taurean Prince and their combined 20 points, 46% shooting and 43 minutes in favor of swingmen Troy Brown and Shake Milton, who last year averaged 15 ppg on 45.5% shooting in 45 minutes. The new guys are a little younger, a little longer and maybe a little quicker, but they don’t challenge the notion that the Wolves more or less stood pat over the winter.
So, why will they be better? Well, obviously, we assume that Ant Edwards will be better and we hope like all holy hell that Towns and Gobert are healthy. Strategically, the Wolves are taking some of the pressure off the Twin Towers, saying that Edwards is the guy they’re building around. And, Ant raised a lot of eyebrows and expectations as the leading scorer for the U.S. national team this summer. He scored 27 ppg in the 2nd half of last year and 35 ppg in the playoffs. The other thing the Wolves have to do is play better defense. Despite adding the former NBA defensive player of the year in Gobert, the Wolves gave up 2+ ppg more last year than they did without Gobert the year before. If they can do that, pencil the Wolves in for 48 wins.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably the big breakout guy in the NBA, having jumped up to 1st team all-NBA. He’s rated the #8 playeer in the league. In theory, his supporting cast is not as good as Edwards,’ but it’s better established that it can play together, that it has the chemistry to support the big guy. Some have OKC ahead of the Wolves but we’ll pencil in the Thunder, who won 40 last year, with 45, 3 games behind the Wolves.
4. Utah Jazz. The Jazz have dismantled a pretty good team. They won 37 games last year and are forecast to win 35 to 37 this year. They’ve got a more balanced lineup than most, but that is another way of saying they’re lacking in star power. 37 wins sounds about right.
5. Portland Trailblazers. Portland has also dismantled a team that used to be pretty good. Damian Lillard was of course the last straw. Now, they’re fully into rebuilding mode. They won 33 with Lillard last year. 23 seems more like it for the upcoming season.
Pacific Division
1. Phoenix Suns. With the addition of Bradley Beal, the Suns are now the only team in the West with 3 of the top 50 NBA players. ESPN has Beal at #37 and supplementing #7 Kevin Durant and #11 Devin Booker. They won 45 games a year ago with Chris Paul. Now with Beal replacing Paul (meaning that the Suns do not really have a point guard), prognosticators have them winning more like 50 or 51 games. I think that’s about right. We’ll say 50.
2. Golden State Warriors. I forgot to mention that this is the glamour division of the NBA. These here Warriors are exhibit A, but then there’s the Lakers, the Suns, the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and the up-and-coming Sacramento Kings. Generally, I think the older teams are going to falter and that includes the Warriors as well as the Lakers and the Clippers. The Suns, of course, made themselves NOT an old, injury-prone team by moving Chris Paul for Bradley Beal. The Warriors are older, of course, and Klay Thompson is Exhibit A. I think Stephen Curry has enough left in the tank to pull them a ways, meaning about 47 wins. Still, this might be the end of the road.
3. Sacramento Kings. The Kings were the breakout team of 2023, and I think their young, energetic, athletic lineup will persevere despite a relative lack of star power. Sabonis will become a star, well, maybe this year and, if so, look out for these guys. But I think 2025 will be more their year. For now, we’ll say 46 wins.
4. Los Angeles Lakers. The powers-that-be are pulling for the Lakers, big time. If they pull off a playoff run, well, more money will be made than in any other scenario. And, hey, no other NBA team has 2 of the top 10 players–LeBron is #9, according to ESPN, and Anthony Davis is #10. But, seriously, they’re not #9 or #10 when they’re not playing. And everybody else in L.A. is a role player (or a Clipper). A playoff run is not out of the question, but a regular season run? No. I’ll say 45 wins.
5. Los Angeles Clippers. A carbon copy of the Lakers with 2 superstars–Paul George at #18 and Kawhi Leonard at #24–but that’s when they’re playing, which they so rarely do. The Clippers supporting cast is better than the Lakers’ and so their floor is higher, but their ceiling is lower because, well, you know, LeBron and AD. 41 wins.
Southwest Division
OK, the Pacific Division is the glamour division. What does that make this?
1. New Orleans Pelicans. This is the single toughest team to handicap. If Zion Williamson is healthy, 46 wins. If he’s not (AGAIN), 38. I think he might actually play and so I give ’em 46 wins.
2. Dallas Mavericks. Surely Doncic and Irving will be better this year, like Towns and Gobert. They won just 38 last year. This year, I’ll say 43.
3. Memphis Grizzlies. With Ja Morant out for 25 games, they’ll win 41, or 10 less than last year. Of course, they might play like a 51 game winner in tbe playoffs. Who knows?
4. San Antonio Spurs. Won a league (co-) low of 22 games last year. With Victor Wembayana, they’re sure to be better, but now much, seriously? They’ve got pretty much nuthin’ else. I’ll give ’em 27 wins.
5. Houston Rockets. OK, the Rockets also won 22 last year, and they didn’t get Wembayana. Seriously, they’re supporting cast is better than San Antonio’s but, hey, we’re talking Wembayana. For Houston, 24 wins.
West Division Playoffs
1. Denver 55 wins
2. Phoenix 50
3. New Orleans 46 (division champion)
4. Minnesota 48. Hey, I said, I was going to take an optimistic approach this year. This is it. Seriously, it’s not gonna get any better than this and, yeah, I’d give tis a 25% shot at happening. It’s the upside. After 34 years, I guess I’m thinkin’ it’s about time for some upsde.
5. Golden State 47
6. Sacramento 46
7. Los Angeles Lakers 45
8. Oklahoma City 45
9. Dallas 43
10. Memphis 41 each
Western Division Playoffs
Lakers defeat Oklahoma City to get #7
Memphis defeats Dallas
Oklahoma City defeats Memphis for #8
Denver defeats Oklahoma City 4-1
Phoenix defeats Lakers 4-1
Sacramento defeats New Orleans 4-3
Minnesota defeats Golden State 4-3. Hey, optimistic!
Denver 4 Minnesota 2. Sorry. The end of the road
Pheonix 4 Sacramento 2
Pheonix 4 Denver 3
Eastern Division
OK, here we’re just gonna keep it simple. The top playoff seeds are:
1. Milwaukee Bucks. The addition of Damian Lillard gives the Bucks the best 1-2 punch in the league.
2. Boston Celtics. The counterpoint is the best 1-2-3 punch in the league–Tatum, Brown and Holiday.
3. Cleveland Cavs. Mitchell, Garland and Mobley also are among the best Big 3 combos in the league.
4. New York Knicks. Jalen Brunson makes them a contender.
5. Philadelphia. Harden is clearly on the way out, so this looks like a year of rebuilding around Embiid.
6. Miami. Another team that is built for the post-season, not the regular season.
7. Atlanta. The East is improving, but #7 Atlanta vs. #7 Lakers (in the west) summarizes the east-west divide as much as anything. 41 wins last year, 41 or 42 would be a good result this year.
8. Toronto’s talent level is not this good, but they have a better history of getting mileage out of the talent they have.
9. Chicago. 37 wins will get the Bulls into the playoffs but it would be 4 wins short of making the playoffs in the West.
10. Indiana. 35 wins would be success. In the west it would of course be a vastly non-playoff success.
11-15. Orlando, Detroit, Washington , Brooklyn and Charlotte define terribleness in the NBA. Any one of them would be the worst team in the awesome West!
Eastern playoffs
Atlanta beats Toronto for #7, Chicago beats Indiana, and Chicago beats Toronto for #8.
Milwaukee beats Chicago
Boston beats Atlanta
Miami beats Cleveland
Philly beats the Knicks
Milwaukee and Boston advance as expected, then Milwaukee beats Boston 4-3.
NBA Finals
Milwaukee 4 Phoenix 3