Well, it was bound to happen. The Timberwolves were bound to hit a speed bump, sooner or later, and that is what they’ve done since about December 10. They were an NBA best of 17-4 at that time, and they’re 7-4 since. They were 20-5 on December 19, and they’re 4-3 since then. Now, there have been plenty of times over the past 35 years that a 4-3 or 7-4 un by the Timberwolves would have been a cause for celebration, but this is not one of those times. How ya gonna gonna keep ’em down on the farm after they’ve been 20-5?
So, since 20-5, there have been a few trends that are less than positive.
1.The 4th Quarter. Every NBA fan knows that games are won and lost in the 4th quarter, or maybe sometimes the 3rd. For 35 years, we’ve watched the Timberwolves play good teams even for 2 and 3 quarters. But, in the 4th quarter, the really good teams pick it up a notch or 2, and as a generalization, the T-Wolves have had a tough time keeping pace down the stretch. So, this year, the Wolves have turned the tables. How many times this year have they played more or less even throughout the 1st half, then kicked it up a notch and put their opponents away in the 3rd and 4th quarters. It’s been a consistent theme.
Until now. Over the past 7 games the Wolves have been outscored in the 4th quarter by 13 points. OK, it’s not a lot. 2 points per game. But this is crunch time. It’s when games are won and lost. It’s when the Wolves have won a lot of their games. But, the Wolves trailed Philly by 3 after 3 on Dec. 20 and lost by 14. They trailed Oklahoma City by 11 on the 26th and lost by 23. They led the Lakers by 5 the other night, and won by 2. They haven’t been putting people away like they did during that, well, 19-3 run (after a 1-2 start).
2. Turnovers and Shooting. It’s no secret that the Wolves have been winning by out-shooting their opponents. That is, they’ve consistently had a higher shooting percentage both from 2 and from 3, and that higher shooting percentage was necessary to winning bccause they’ve often gotten off fewer shots than their opponents, mostly because of turnovers.
But, against Philly, they not only had 18 turnovers to Philly’s 12, but Philly shot 54% to the Wolves 51%. There’s no way you’re going to win when your opponents gets off more shots at the basket and makes a higher percentage. The same thing happened against Oklahoma City, who shot 60% from the field compared to 47% from the Wolves. The Wolves had 21 turnovers, OKC only 11.
In fact, the OKC game was the real eye-opener of the whole month. It’s no surprise when Joel Embiid lights you up, and he did to the tune of 51 points. You’re just not gonna win that game. But, OKC surprised the Wolves, I think, with their quickness. The Wolves are not a quick team. They’re a big team with good skills, but just raw athletic quickness is not their forte, not even Ant Edwards. Well, OKC exploited their advantage mercilessly. On defense, OKC had the Wolves scrambling just to protect the ball, much less to get a good shot. On offense, they dashed down the court before the Wolves knew what hit them, consistently getting the odd-man rush and an easy layup. Ergo, the 60% shooting percentage.
I said at the beginning of this stretch that it would be a tough stretch, and I said that I hoped they would win 3 out of 4 at Philly, Lakers at home, at Sacramento and at OKC. Well, they won 2 out of 4. They played their best game of that stretch at Sacramento, winning on the road against a good opponent, 110-98, without Karl Towns. Ant responded with 34 points and 10 assists, while Rudy Gobert scored 21 and Jaden McDaniels 20. The debacle at OKC came 4 nights later as Towns returned to score 16.
3. Oh, yeah, Karl Towns. Now I’m not down on Karl Towns like some folks like to be. Apparently he was hurt and he struggled when he came back, scoring 16 against the Kings, just 10 against Dallas (on 3-of-12 shooting) and 9 against the Lakers (3-of-7). So that didn’t help. But the Wolves coped with that adversity, winning 2 of 3, but struggling a little bit to beat mediocre opponents Dallas 118-110 and the Lakers 108-106, both at home. Ant scored 100 in those games and has scored 169 in his last 5 games, but OKC held even the Ant-man to just 25, almost 10 below his recent average. But, return to Karl, the Wolves won without him and lost when he returned to form *29 points) at New York on Monday.
Looking Ahead
And now things get really tough. OK, not tougher than 3 out of 4 road games at Philly, Sacramento and OKC like 2 weeks ago. But tonight they get New Orleans at home and if Zion Williamson is healthy and plays, well, the Wolves have always had trouble matching up with Zion Williamson. Then comes 4 more road games at Houston, Dallas, Orlando and Boston. Now, a couple-three weeks ago, I would have predicted wins at Houston, Dallas and Orlando, but we just got by a Dallas team last week at home that was without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. So a bunch of nobodies took a page from the OKC playbook and played at a fast-pace and almost came away with a win.
Now, luckily, after those 5 games (and I expect a little bit of adversity, maybe a 2-3 record), the next 5 are a little easier including Portland, the Lakers and Memphis at home and at Detroit, all eminently winnable games. That 5 game set ends with a rematch, a circle-your-calendar type of game against the scary good, scary quick Oklahoma City Thunder again. That’s on January 20 at Target Center. And, assuming the Wolves go into that game with, say, 6 wins in those previous 9 games to remain in contention for the top spot in the West, if the Wolves in other words still harbor the very, very high expectations that have been mounting throughout this season, well, then that is a game–more than the one on Jan. 10 at Boston–that, my friends, OKC on the home court, is the game that will define the Wolves expectations, or at least those of their fans, as the Wolves turn the corner into the 2nd half of the regular season. So, go ahead, circle Jan. 20 on your calendar because that is the date on which you will know how good these Timberwolves really are and can be.