I keep putting off writing about the Timberwolves. Like all Timberwolves fans, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. The other shoe, you ask? Ok. Shoe #1 was the blockbuster trade for 7-foot-1, 31-year-old Rudy Gobert, a trade that cost the Timberwolves ten men–5 actual players and 5 draft picks–for the price of one. And what, for that immense cost did the Timberwolves get? Well, despite adding one of the league’s premiere rim protectors, a former NBA Defensive Player of the Year, the Timberwolves gave up 3 more points than they had done the year before. And, bottom line of bottom lines, they got 4 fewer wins than the year before. Ouch.
The fact is that the Wolves’ new 7-footer and their other 7-footer, Karl Anthony-Towns, just didn’t get enough reps and so they never really jelled on the court. Towns, as skilled offensively as Gobert is on the defense, missed much of last year with a calf injury, then scored a paltry (for him) 18 points per game in the playoffs.
So, now, during the current off-season, the NBA is rife with rumors that the Wolves are in the market to trade one of their Big 3–but most certainly not 21-year-old shooting guard Anthony Edwards, like Towns a former #1 overall draft pick who scored 25 ppg on 46 percent shooting. So, no, the Wolves are in fact rumored to be in the market to trade one of their Big 2. But, oh, yes, Gobert’s 5-year $205 million contract is said to be unpalatable for most NBA teams. One day, he’ll still be making $41 million a year a a declining 35-year-old. And, so, by process of elimination, the Wolves are said to be in the market to trade Towns, only so recently the cornerstone of the franchise. But, to date, there are only rumors. Actual reports of the Timberwolves actually discussing such a trade with some other NBA team or teams have stubbornly refused to emerge.
Xs and Os
So, it’s way early to say so, but we’ll say it. The Timberwolves roster is what it is, and it will be what it is. And, so, what are the prospects for this rosterbuilt around Edwards, Towns and Gobert for the 2023-2024 season? Well, first and foremost, one must assume that the Wolves will have what they didn’t have last year. Health. If they don’t have that then there’s not much to say. And hopefully they’ll get the reps that they need for Gobert and Towns to play together the way that somebody must have had in mind when they gave up ten players to put them both there.
Plus’s and Minus’s
The fact is that the Timberwolves as an aggregate have some real strengths. They shot 49 percent from the field, 3rd in the NBA. (On the other hand, they were just 13th on 3-pointers at 36 percent after leading the NBA in 3-pointers made the year before. But then they gave up 3-point shooters Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley to get Gobert, so the 3 is no longer at the center of their offensive schemes.) But along with a stellar 49 percent shooting percentage, the Wolves also were #5 in the NBA in steals and #4 in blocked shots.
But there were more weaknesses than strengths, really. Despite the addition of Gobert, they got clobbered on the boards, ranking 23rd themselves (and 26th on the offensive boards) while they gave up the 4th most rebounds and the 7th most offensive boards. They were also 26th with 15 turnovers. Putting the O-boards and the turnovers together, the Wolves ended up with 3 fewer possessions per game than their opponents. And, so, despite the 49 percent shooting, they ended up tied, 116-116, in their average game. They also neither get to the free throw line with any frequency nor do they make free throws with any particular frequency (75 percent, 24th in the league).
And we haven’t even mentioned their defense. Towns was never much of a defender but he is even more exposed trying to guard a 4 than he was in the paint. (Getting rid of DeAngelo Russell makes their defense better but, again, there goes another 3-point shooter
Intangibles
The Timberwolves have also been accused (by their own management) of emotional immaturity. Maybe this has something to do with their inability to stay focused against weak opponents. They Wolves went 10-13 in their toughest games–that is, against winning teams on the road. They were 11-9 against winning teams at home. They were 9-9 against losing teams on the road, but if that’s not bad enough, they were just 11-10 against losing teams at home, where you would think they would clean up. The worst was in February. They entered the month at 27-26 but lost 3 games to teams with losing records–Orlando, Washington and Charlotte on Feb. 3, 16 and 24, giving up an average of 121 points. And, so they exited the month at 32-32 and they never got to more than 2 games above .500.
The Depth Chart
So, again, whither the Timberwolves? Well, the smart guys on the internet project the following depth chart.
C- Gobert, Naz Reid and Luka Garza
PF- Towns, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
SF- McDaniels, Troy Brown, Edwards
PG- Mike Conley, Jordan McLaughlin, Shake Milton
SG- Edwards, Nikiell Alexander-Walker, Wendell Moore
The first thing that jumps out is the lack of depth. Naz Reid is a solid sub and (amazingly) he’s just 23 (younger than I thought. Kyle Anderson is not bad and he (amazingly) is 29 (older than I thought). And free agent acquisitions Troy Brown (age 23 and Shake Milton (age 26) might represent two steps forward. But, are they difference makers? Is the Wolves’ bench not going to get beat when it’s out there against the other benches?
The Wolves have had ten different GMs in the past 15 years and maybe the lack of continuity explains why the Wolves have such a hard time putting winning combinations on the floor. Maybe you noticed the Wolves’ Summer League team. I mean, here’s another opportunity to put 5, 6, 8 guys on the floor and see what they can do. Once again, the Wolves have put together a team that is just not up to par. They’ve won one and lost 4, They’ve been outscored by an average of 7 ppg. And this team features 3 guys on the major league roster–6-5, 21-year-old guard Wendell Moore, 6-8 20-year-old forward Josh Minott, and 6-10 19-year-old power forward Leonard Miller. And they’re getting beat by the other guy’s 19, 20 and 21 year olds. Goes to the skills of the Wolves’ front office, does it not?
Back to Xs and Os
So if the Wolves are going to contend, I mean really content, not as a #7 or a #8, but as a team that can get the home court advantage and win a playoff series or 2, here are 3 things they need to do.
1. Shoot better. I mean, this is the essence of basketball. Put it in the hole. Maintain that 49 percent average overall, but improve on shooting odd numbered shots. Make the 3 the advantage that it once was. Meaning Edwards matches last year’s 40, Anderson matches 41, Conley matches 42. Towns makes more than 37. And newcomers Brown and Milton match their 38 of a year ago and take minutes from Nowell (29 percent) and McLaughlin (31) and Rivers (35). Overall, raise the 3-point shooting percentage by 2-3 points. And for heaven’s sake, make more than 75 percent of FTs, near the bottom of the NBA. Shoot 80. Do those 2 things and the Wolves will be not just an above average offensive team, but an elite team like they were 2 years ago. Of course, they scored 116 points 2 years ago and they scored 116 last year. But at 36% and 75%, there is room for more. Score 118 or 119, darnit.
2. Play better defense. That means getting more of an effort out of Towns, and it means that there can’t be any other holes in the defense. Again, getting rid of DeAngelo Russell makes their D better on day one. But, you know, optimize with some schemes that enhance Gobert’s value and hides Towns a little better. 2 years ago they gave up 113 points a game, last year 116. Get it back to 113. And at 118-113, well, only the Celtics and Cavs did that last year.
3. Hit the boards. There is no reason why a team with Rudy Gobert should possibly be the 5th or 6th worst rebounding team in the league. Gobert got 12 last year. After that McDaniels got 6 and Towns 5. Not enough.
OK. 4 things. The Wolves have got to start showing up against weak opponents. Again they were 10-13, almost .500, against winning teams on the road. That is damn good. 11-9 against winners at home is so-so. 9-9 against losers on the road is not so good. But 11-10 against losers at home? They shoulda won every one of those games or, OK, more realistically 4 out of 5. If you can win in Philly, then you can beat Carolina and San Antone and Detroit at home. Win 4 out of 5 (16-5) and, voila!, you’re 47-35 and you’re 4th in the West and you’ve got home court in the 1st round. Or better yet, go 19-2 against dogs at home and you’re 50-32 and you’re third.
The Wolves have this kind of potential, right? If, that is, Gobert and Towns end up looking more like a win-win rather than the lose-lose that they were a year ago, and that’s a big if. If not, well, again, there’s just not very much that anyone can say, and then, by this time next year, Towns will almost surely be gone and the Wolves future will depend on what they can get for their soon to be 28 year old $256 ($36-$49-$53-$57-$61) million dollar man.